Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:39:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa927…8d9f sports 144 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 5d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (614 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$12,851 (+4%) realized +$12,108 · open +$743
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate37%90W / 155L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,129per market
Trades / day613.9pace
Fees−$3,246est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$4,504now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$28,767
other 2% −$4,019
crypto 1% −$177
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (614 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-39.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 245 -33.3% -39.7% 37% 30% -44.0%
≤30d 245 -33.3% -39.7% 37% 30% -44.0%
≤90d 245 -33.3% -39.7% 37% 30% -44.0%
all 245 -33.3% -39.7% 37% 30% -44.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover613.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.7% 30% -44.0%
10% -45.4% 26% -49.3%
15% ← realistic here -50.7% 22% -54.2%
20% -55.5% 18% -58.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$2,776) neutral
Persistence
early +20% → late -87% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
16.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$981 vs −$1,915 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$4,504
Realized+$12,108
Unrealized+$743
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses90 / 155
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$3,246
Open positions4
Markets (closed)245 / 144
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$2,129
Trades / day613.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 245 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Playoffs Rooster 70¢ 100¢ $2,803 $3,992 +$1,190 (+42%)
Will Aurora make a roster change before July? Yes 38¢ 32¢ $516 $437 −$78 (-15%)
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group C Alpha Dominion Nation 51¢ 50¢ $76 $74 −$2 (-3%)
Map Handicap: RSTR (-1.5) vs DXA Esports (+1.5) Rooster 56¢ 0¢ $366 $0 −$366 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 141 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L Jun 17 $6,012 −$6,806 -113%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $4,360 −$4,360 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs Rebels Gaming (BO1) - Europe MENA Jun 17 $548 −$542 -99%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs WW Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $2,673 −$2,673 -100%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Play Jun 17 $1,186 −$1,186 -100%
Counter-Strike: Dripmen vs Bushido Wildcats - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,835 −$1,835 -100%
Counter-Strike: Young Ninjas vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $2,968 −$2,968 -100%
Map Handicap: RUST (-1.5) vs against All authority (+1.5) Jun 17 $347 −$347 -100%
Valorant: University War vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Re Jun 17 $4,667 −$4,667 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St Jun 17 $3,301 −$3,301 -100%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - NODW Jun 17 $2,044 −$2,044 -100%
Map Handicap: PAR (-1.5) vs eSuba (+1.5) Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Chicken Coop Esports (BO3) - FRAG TAP Rel Jun 17 $362 −$362 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: Dripmen vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Challen Jun 17 $8,993 −$8,993 -100%
Valorant: University War vs BESTIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $792 −$792 -100%
Map Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+1.5) Jun 17 $579 −$579 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lazer Cats - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $3,694 −$3,694 -100%
Map Handicap: SRG (-1.5) vs FlyQuest RED (+1.5) Jun 17 $1,971 −$1,971 -100%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,075 −$1,075 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $5,462 −$5,462 -100%
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Jun 17 $1,443 −$1,443 -100%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 1 Winn Jun 17 $3,243 −$3,243 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Masked Regime - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $3,380 −$3,380 -100%
Map Handicap: UNiTY (-1.5) vs LPH Gaming (+1.5) Jun 17 $1,857 −$1,857 -100%
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs Clutchain - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,724 −$1,724 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $2,999 −$2,999 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs AM Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,389 −$1,389 -100%
Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,659 −$1,659 -100%
Map Handicap: ILWL (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5) Jun 17 $1,842 −$1,842 -100%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Play Jun 17 $823 −$823 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $379 −$379 -100%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $2,050 −$2,050 -100%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $855 −$855 -100%
Map Handicap: UNiTY (-1.5) vs ENCE (+1.5) Jun 17 $551 −$551 -100%
Map Handicap: UNiTY (-1.5) vs ex-MANA eSports (+1.5) Jun 17 $852 −$852 -100%
Valorant: SwimTrek Blue vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Cha Jun 17 $831 −$831 -100%
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs The Last Resort - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $232 −$232 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Map Handicap: MSC (-1.5) vs AaB Bulls (+1.5) Jun 17 $738 −$738 -100%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Chicken Coop Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $772 −$772 -100%
Map Handicap: TNC (-1.5) vs Lazer Cats (+1.5) Jun 17 $158 −$158 -100%
Map Handicap: FaZe (-1.5) vs magic (+1.5) Jun 17 $1,469 −$1,469 -100%
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+1.5) Jun 17 $2,392 −$2,392 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,376 −$2,935 -213%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs WRAITH PCIFIC - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $347 −$347 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $403 −$403 -100%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Entropy - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,605 −$1,605 -100%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs UNiTY esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $2,194 −$2,194 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $517 −$517 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group SELL CHAOS 50¢ $1,255 27m
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 51¢ $78 51m
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 44¢ $38 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 45¢ $127 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 49¢ $154 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 44¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 44¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 50¢ $182 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 44¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 48¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 48¢ $48 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 48¢ $88 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 48¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 51¢ $153 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 48¢ $22 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 54¢ $151 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 54¢ $97 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 54¢ $22 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 47¢ $171 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1,162 1h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 68¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 68¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 68¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 68¢ $27 1h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 68¢ $128 1h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 68¢ $38 1h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 69¢ $54 1h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 69¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 69¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 69¢ $21 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,504.16 · official $4,504.16 (match) · 3500 history records