Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:27:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A9 0xa929…d54b crypto 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$271 (+14%) realized +$272 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%23W / 23L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% −$2
crypto 30% +$30
other 7% +$173
tech 6% +$67
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 29 -16.5% -24.4% 41% 34% -10.7%
≤90d 44 -15.6% -23.7% 48% 43% -8.0%
all 46 -10.7% -19.2% 50% 46% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 46% +2.9%
10% -26.9% 41% -6.9%
15% -34.0% 33% -15.9%
20% -40.4% 30% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$4 · ×3.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.78 per $1 lost it wins $3.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$272
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses23 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage100d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 27 $833 −$1 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 26 $279 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12AM ET May 31 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 25? May 25 $141 +$18 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4AM ET May 25 $41 −$41 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8AM ET May 25 $10 +$10 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET May 25 $10 +$10 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 25 $94 +$36 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5AM ET May 20 $8 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7AM ET May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4AM ET May 16 $7 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6AM ET May 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 23? May 16 $125 +$14 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 19? Apr 20 $48 +$12 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 18? Apr 18 $5 −$5 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Apr 08 $29 +$9 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Apr 03 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Apr 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on March 20? Mar 23 $113 +$67 +59%
NYA (NYA) Up or Down on March 19? Mar 20 $126 +$174 +138%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $139 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $139 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $139 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $139 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $140 27h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 100¢ $140 27h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $140 27h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 100¢ $140 27h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $139 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $139 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $139 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $139 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $139 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $139 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $139 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $139 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 14d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 14d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 14d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 14d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 14d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 14d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.08 · official $1.08 (match) · 94 history records