Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:23:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa92a…c09a crypto 1384 markets active 2h ago coverage 61d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 60d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,986 (-4%) realized −$1,986 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate84%1161W / 223L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day32.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 61d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5,704
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -32.8% -39.2% 52% 42% -32.9%
≤30d 216 -8.1% -16.8% 68% 62% -14.1%
≤90d 1384 -2.0% -11.3% 84% 40% -12.3%
all 1384 -2.0% -11.3% 84% 40% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 40% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 18% -20.7%
15% -27.6% 9% -28.3%
20% -34.7% 2% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$75 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,986
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses1161 / 223
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1384 / 1384
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$39
Trades / day32.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1384 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $188 +$36 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $377 +$91 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $569 +$154 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $187 +$15 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $187 +$17 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $408 +$159 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $414 +$392 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $407 +$115 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $188 −$372 -198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $189 +$62 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $488 −$960 -197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $406 −$800 -197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $314 +$76 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $849 +$223 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $187 +$19 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $244 +$74 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $191 −$372 -195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $189 −$189 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $189 −$189 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $189 −$189 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $190 −$190 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $190 −$190 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $406 +$109 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $187 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $569 +$152 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $572 −$1,120 -196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $375 +$49 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $189 +$62 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $408 +$155 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $412 −$800 -194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $28 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $379 −$744 -196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $385 −$744 -193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $190 −$372 -196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $190 −$372 -195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $191 −$372 -195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $191 −$372 -194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $190 −$372 -196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $190 −$372 -196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$9 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 10 $190 +$76 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$13 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $16 +$5 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 09 $191 +$122 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $189 −$189 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 09 $189 −$189 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $189 −$189 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 09 $189 −$189 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 09 $189 −$189 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 09 $380 +$148 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $188 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $187 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $190 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $81 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $81 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $81 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $81 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $81 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $81 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $81 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $187 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $187 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $82 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $82 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $82 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $82 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $82 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $83 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $83 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $83 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $83 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $83 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $81 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $81 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $81 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $81 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $81 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $188 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $189 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $81 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records