Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:31:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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A9 0xa92c…ce44 sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$50 (-6%) realized −$57 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate78%18W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days−$52
14 days−$52
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$79
crypto 26% +$21
other 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -6.0% -14.9% 57% 0% -23.2%
≤30d 7 -6.0% -14.9% 57% 0% -23.2%
≤90d 10 -7.0% -15.9% 50% 10% -27.0%
all 23 +11.9% +1.2% 78% 52% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.2% 52% -17.1%
10% -8.4% 30% -25.1%
15% -17.3% 17% -32.3%
20% -25.4% 4% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$25 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses18 / 5
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)23 / 26
History coverage126d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 72¢ 81¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $72 −$3 -4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 $0 -0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $51 +$5 +9%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 21 $102 −$55 -54%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $28 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Apr 01 $28 +$8 +29%
LoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qua Mar 29 $140 −$57 -41%
LoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 29 $70 −$12 -17%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $41 +$15 +37%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team Secret Whales - Game 2 Winner Mar 18 $7 +$1 +14%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 18 $16 +$4 +24%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Mar 18 $16 +$2 +15%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 17 $32 +$4 +11%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 12 $32 +$7 +22%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 09 $16 +$6 +37%
Valorant: T1 vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Stage Mar 03 $4 +$2 +43%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 03 $15 +$1 +10%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Mar 01 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Mar 01 $3 $0 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 01 $4 +$4 +82%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs paiN (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 16 $2 +$1 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 50¢ $22 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 52¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 52¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 50¢ $8 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 49¢ $33 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 51¢ $31 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 48¢ $41 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 90¢ $51 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 100¢ $51 26h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 58¢ $51 30h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 41¢ $12 30h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 43¢ $21 30h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 43¢ $2 30h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 43¢ $0 30h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 43¢ $1 30h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 43¢ $2 30h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 43¢ $2 30h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 48¢ $51 30h
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $8 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $29 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $31 5d
LoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qua SELL ThunderTalk Gaming 23¢ $36 85d
LoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qua BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 45¢ $70 85d
LoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qua SELL ThunderTalk Gaming 30¢ $47 85d
LoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qua BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 44¢ $70 85d
LoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL ThunderTalk Gaming 35¢ $58 85d
LoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 42¢ $70 85d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $10 91d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 99¢ $1 92d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 73¢ $41 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.73 · official $136.73 (match) · 134 history records