Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:54:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa92d…4e71 other 107 markets active 5d ago coverage 102d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 102d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$21,613 (+24%) realized +$21,887 · open −$274
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate57%59W / 44L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$839per market
Trades / day31.9pace
Fees−$95est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$17,228now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 102d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$78
world 16% +$1,385
sports 12% −$5,631
finance 6% +$1,692
crypto 2% −$461
politics 1% +$10
economics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 -12.3% -20.7% 56% 56% +16.0%
≤90d 78 -11.4% -19.9% 56% 36% -11.6%
all 103 +5.4% -4.6% 57% 40% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.6% 40% -14.4%
10% -13.7% 36% -22.6%
15% ← realistic here -22.1% 27% -30.1%
20% -29.7% 21% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$520) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +24% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
22.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$178 vs −$324 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$17,228
Realized+$21,887
Unrealized−$274
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses59 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$95
Open positions4
Markets (closed)103 / 107
History coverage102d ⚠
Avg bet$839
Trades / day31.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 51¢ 50¢ $17,330 $17,160 −$170 (-1%)
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026? Yes 26¢ 14¢ $130 $67 −$62 (-48%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $42 $1 −$41 (-99%)
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $390 +$85 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $85 +$115 +135%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $50 −$50 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $80 −$80 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $395 +$104 +26%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $189 +$111 +59%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 31 $340 +$159 +47%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $455 +$44 +10%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 24 $1,395 +$105 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $476 +$24 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 12 $462 +$34 +8%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 06 $729 −$729 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 27 $953 +$47 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 23 $90 −$32 -35%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 23 $355 +$130 +37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $285 +$150 +53%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $385 +$115 +30%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 19 $1,045 −$1,045 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets in April 2026? Apr 19 $3 −$1 -45%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Apr 19 $470 −$190 -40%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 19 $470 −$470 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets in April 2026? Apr 19 $2 +$1 +55%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 19 $245 −$245 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 19 $64 −$64 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 19 $330 −$330 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 17 $465 +$20 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 16 $865 +$119 +14%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Apr 15 $105 −$10 -10%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 11 $430 +$500 +116%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Apr 10 $138 −$42 -30%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $126 +$4 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 08 $1,085 +$261 +24%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 08 $650 +$20 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 08 $1,280 +$600 +47%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 08 $728 +$351 +48%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $54 +$46 +85%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 07 $490 +$410 +84%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $305 −$305 -100%
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Apr 07 $29 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in March? Apr 07 $20 −$3 -17%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in March? Apr 07 $20 −$13 -65%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? Apr 07 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Apr 07 $50 −$33 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 06 $455 +$44 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets in April 2026? Apr 06 $2 +$2 +74%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 05 $2,096 −$862 -41%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 05 $350 +$70 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $79 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $475 14d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $42 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? SELL Yes 40¢ $129 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? SELL Yes 40¢ $54 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? SELL Yes 40¢ $4 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? SELL Yes 40¢ $12 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? BUY No 5¢ $4 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? BUY No 5¢ $16 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? BUY No 5¢ $0 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? BUY No 5¢ $0 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,227.70 · official $17,227.70 (match) · 3500 history records