Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:17:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa92f…c678 weather 751 markets active 1h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$574 (-1%) realized −$574 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate95%713W / 38L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$72
7 days−$116
14 days−$75
30 days−$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% +$184
weather 37% −$340
tech 5% +$27
other 5% −$533
finance 0% +$17
economics 0% +$1
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -4.9% -13.9% 88% 8% -14.5%
≤30d 220 -1.1% -10.5% 94% 6% -10.2%
≤90d 439 -0.9% -10.3% 95% 3% -9.6%
all 751 -0.8% -10.2% 95% 2% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 2% -10.1%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$73 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$574
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses713 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)751 / 751
History coverage245d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 751 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $91 +$8 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 20? Jun 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 20? Jun 20 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $86 −$86 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? Jun 18 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $92 +$8 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? Jun 17 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 17 $11 +$1 +10%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $92 +$8 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 16 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $92 +$8 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $90 −$90 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 15 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $92 +$8 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 15 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $91 +$9 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $92 +$8 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $92 −$92 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 13 $91 +$9 +10%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 13 $122 −$30 -25%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 8 above $230? Jun 12 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $91 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $66 +$5 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $82 +$18 +21%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $88 −$88 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 10? Jun 10 $61 +$6 +10%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 10 $92 +$8 +8%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on June 9? Jun 09 $63 +$2 +3%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 on June 9? Jun 09 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $370 on June 9? Jun 09 $97 +$2 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun Jun 09 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 8? Jun 08 $91 +$9 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 21? BUY No 91¢ $91 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $100 14h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 87¢ $101 15h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20? BUY No 95¢ $95 18h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $100 24h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $100 24h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 92¢ $92 30h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 20? BUY No 92¢ $92 31h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $100 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C or below on June 19? BUY No 86¢ $86 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 92¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 92¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 92¢ $17 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 92¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $100 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $69 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $31 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $55 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $12 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $14 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $34 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $58 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $100 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June SELL No 100¢ $12 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $92 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $49 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY No 91¢ $11 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2526 history records