Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:36:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa932…5b92 world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate47%14W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% +$3
other 15% +$1
finance 6% $0
politics 4% $0
sports 2% −$3
crypto 2% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.0% -8.6% 40% 20% -9.4%
≤30d 14 -1.2% -10.6% 36% 14% -8.8%
≤90d 18 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 17% -8.9%
all 30 +0.1% -9.4% 47% 10% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 10% -9.2%
10% -18.1% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses14 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage469d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 78¢ 78¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $42 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $42 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -7%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +12%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 27 $80 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $16 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $52 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $51 +$6 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $20 −$3 -14%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 24 $38 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $2 $0 -22%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $38 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $43 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 21 $1 $0 +14%
Will Alberta join the US? May 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $38 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Jun 26 $10 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +5%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 20 $1 $0 +6%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Apr 18 $10 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Apr 18 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? Mar 31 $12 $0 +4%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will anyone audibly fart during Digital Asset Summit? Mar 23 $13 $0 +4%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 20 $15 −$3 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $46 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $32 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $11 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $5 12h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $37 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $15 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $15 25h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $42 33h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 37h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 45h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 46h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 46h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 46h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $1 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $7 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $1 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $5 2d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $41 23d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $41 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $16 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $16 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 23¢ $10 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 43¢ $35 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 43¢ $0 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 39¢ $6 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 38¢ $24 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 38¢ $2 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.31 · official $46.31 (match) · 88 history records