Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:16:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A9 0xa936…3b90 sports 551 markets active 1d ago coverage 711d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$803 (+1%) realized +$733 · open +$70
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate59%322W / 225L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$289per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$373est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$312now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days+$156
14 days−$108
30 days+$607
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$369
world 28% +$468
sports 17% −$747
other 10% +$974
crypto 1% −$153
culture 0% +$28
economics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -12.1% -20.5% 52% 52% -1.2%
≤30d 69 -10.6% -19.1% 55% 54% -0.2%
≤90d 233 -12.9% -21.2% 52% 49% -10.5%
all 547 +2.3% -7.5% 59% 54% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 54% -9.1%
10% -16.3% 47% -17.8%
15% -24.4% 36% -25.8%
20% -31.8% 26% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$66 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

711d coverage
Net worth$312
Realized+$733
Unrealized+$70
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses322 / 225
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$373
Open positions3
Markets (closed)547 / 551
History coverage711d
Avg bet$289
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 547 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $105 $178 +$73 (+69%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $88 $92 +$4 (+5%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 21¢ $49 $41 −$7 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 124 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 −$18 -36%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $33 +$14 +42%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $35 +$47 +136%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 +$42 +84%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $34 −$33 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$29 +58%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $125 +$35 +28%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $34 −$34 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $150 +$97 +65%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $49 +$21 +43%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $17 +$18 +107%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $33 +$24 +72%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$21 +42%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $25 +$18 +70%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $55 −$44 -80%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $251 +$158 +63%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $25 +$9 +35%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 −$24 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $153 +$68 +45%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $18 −$15 -84%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $102 +$59 +58%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $21 +$8 +38%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $150 +$91 +61%
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $25 +$13 +50%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $28 +$22 +82%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $40 +$17 +43%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $203 −$107 -53%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $45 +$30 +67%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $250 +$102 +41%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 +$27 +105%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $178 +$95 +54%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $99 +$12 +12%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $300 +$30 +10%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $11 −$10 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $68 −$40 -60%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 −$101 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $36 +$33 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 35¢ $32 24h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $18 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $16 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $6 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 25h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $33 28h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 96¢ $70 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 96¢ $7 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 96¢ $5 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $35 31h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 92¢ $92 46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 46h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $17 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $34 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 100¢ $37 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 100¢ $40 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 100¢ $2 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 63¢ $50 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $82 3d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $34 3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Senegal 78¢ $125 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 99¢ $247 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 60¢ $150 4d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 62¢ $7 4d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 62¢ $10 4d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 62¢ $16 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $311.85 · official $311.85 (match) · 2830 history records