Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:13:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A9 0xa936…5d19 other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$28 (-5%) realized −$26 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate39%12W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$79
14 days+$36
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$43
crypto 12% $0
sports 4% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +223.5% +192.7% 60% 40% +35.3%
≤30d 31 +17.0% +5.9% 39% 32% -0.4%
≤90d 31 +17.0% +5.9% 39% 32% -0.4%
all 31 +17.0% +5.9% 39% 32% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.9% 32% -0.4%
10% -4.2% 26% -9.9%
15% -13.5% 23% -18.6%
20% -22.0% 16% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$6 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$26
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses12 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 40
History coverage13d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $73 $70 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $78 +$12 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $71 +$7 +10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 22 $5 +$66 +1290%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +38%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $11 +$5 +48%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $17 +$2 +12%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 -0%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$3 +32%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +262%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 +$1 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 +$16 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$17 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $74 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 10¢ $1 44h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY $1 44h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY $1 44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25 BUY 47¢ $41 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY $21 45h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 DR Congo? SELL Yes $0 46h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 58¢ $20 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $78 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $71 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY $4 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY $5 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 12¢ $5 7d
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 8d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 8d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes $1 8d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 8d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 8d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 8d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 9d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 9d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $7 9d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 9d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 9d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 9d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $2 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.47 · official $101.17 · 66 history records