Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:02:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A9 0xa936…1d7f world 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$172 (-66%) realized −$172 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 100d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 99% −$171
crypto 1% −$2
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-67.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -95.9% -96.3% 0% 0% -96.3%
≤30d 1 -95.9% -96.3% 0% 0% -96.3%
≤90d 2 -74.7% -77.1% 0% 0% -70.1%
all 5 -64.1% -67.5% 20% 20% -70.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -67.5% 20% -70.0%
10% -70.6% 20% -72.9%
15% -73.5% 0% -75.5%
20% -76.1% 0% -77.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -67% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -64% · $-wt -67% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$43 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$172
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage100d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 15 $81 −$78 -96%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Mar 20 $174 −$93 -54%
Dota 2: OG vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 07 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $81 87d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $81 87d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $152 96d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $22 100d
Dota 2: OG vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $1 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 100d
Dota 2: OG vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage BUY Vici Gaming 77¢ $1 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.03 · official $3.03 (match) · 12 history records