Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:54:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa938…5883 politics 70 markets active 14h ago coverage 269d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%3W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$6
sports 24% −$3
other 12% −$1
crypto 6% −$1
culture 3% $0
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 4 -4.2% -13.3% 0% 0% -9.9%
all 67 -4.3% -13.4% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 0% -9.7%
10% -21.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

269d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses3 / 64
Open positions3
Markets (closed)67 / 70
History coverage269d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $85 $85 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $85 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $89 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $3 $0 -16%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $89 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $88 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $91 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 20 $95 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 15 $88 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 01 $1 $0 -10%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 01 $89 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 30 $87 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 28 $89 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 26 $90 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 24 $90 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 23 $184 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 22 $190 $0 -0%
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Jan 21 $89 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 18 $186 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 18 $89 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jan 16 $90 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 15 $91 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 13? Jan 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 13 $2 $0 -12%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 11 $93 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 09 $90 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 08 $89 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 04 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 03 $91 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 01 $188 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 29 $94 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 26 $94 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 25 $96 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Dec 25 $90 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 22 $187 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 20 $187 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 18 $94 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 17 $191 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 16 $98 −$1 -1%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 13 $92 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 10 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 07 $1 $0 -25%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 04 $92 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 30 $96 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 27 $190 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 25 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 24 $1 $0 -50%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 23 $98 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Nov 23 $1 $0 -33%
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Nov 18 $94 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 15 $96 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $86 13h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $84 2d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $85 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 6d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $89 6d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $89 15d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 30d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 34d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 98d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 98d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $88 98d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $88 100d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $87 106d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $87 111d
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $91 115d
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $91 117d
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 117d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $88 121d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $88 132d
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 132d
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 136d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 136d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $89 136d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $89 136d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 136d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 137d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.85 · official $86.85 (match) · 273 history records