Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:42:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa93a…b6e1 politics 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$233 (-0%) realized −$232 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 102L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,782per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$20
14 days−$43
30 days−$189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$131
other 41% −$103
world 4% −$9
culture 3% −$8
economics 1% −$2
sports 1% −$36
tech 1% +$3
crypto 0% +$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 42 -1.9% -11.2% 10% 2% -9.7%
≤90d 106 -3.1% -12.3% 9% 5% -9.7%
all 112 -2.9% -12.2% 9% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 4% -9.7%
10% -20.6% 4% -18.3%
15% -28.3% 4% -26.2%
20% -35.3% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,283) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$5 · ×4.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$232
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)112 / 113
History coverage94d
Avg bet$1,782
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 57¢ 56¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 24 $2,355 −$3 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $4,827 −$5 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $799 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 22 $660 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $5,704 −$6 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $555 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $251 $0 +0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 17 $1,287 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,041 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,130 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $5,813 −$6 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $2,808 −$3 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $2,700 −$4 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $881 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 14 $267 +$4 +2%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $4,309 −$5 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $1,055 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,414 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,166 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $3,276 −$4 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,012 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $2,689 −$4 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,418 −$2 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $77 −$77 -100%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $4,505 −$6 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $4,891 −$5 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,454 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $4,631 −$6 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,306 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $56 +$69 +124%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $3,899 −$5 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,481 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 01 $712 +$1 +0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,562 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 29 $2,299 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $1,937 −$3 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $2,283 −$3 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $2,116 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $4,251 −$6 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,100 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,014 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,195 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $3,975 −$5 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 23 $67 −$67 -100%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $67 +$65 +97%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 21 $37 +$42 +114%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $24 +$9 +40%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $2,468 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $671 1h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $671 5h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $637 23h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $638 25h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $666 25h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $666 27h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $797 30h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $799 31h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $659 45h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $660 2d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $715 2d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $716 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $554 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $555 6d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $1,285 6d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $1,287 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,039 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,041 7d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,129 7d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,130 8d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,163 8d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,164 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,194 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,196 8d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,299 8d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,301 9d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,397 9d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,399 9d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $879 10d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $881 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.22 · official $69.23 (match) · 386 history records