Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:08:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa93b…ce26 other 258 markets active 0h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$83 (-0%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%22W / 235L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$17
14 days−$26
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$38
sports 23% −$23
politics 7% −$4
crypto 6% −$11
economics 6% −$6
culture 5% −$7
world 4% −$2
tech 1% −$2
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
all 257 -0.2% -9.7% 9% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses22 / 235
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)257 / 258
History coverage136d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 257 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $161 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $232 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $266 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $57 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $293 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $194 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $343 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $463 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $425 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $517 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $199 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $182 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $388 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $312 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $277 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 14 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $641 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $241 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $98 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $692 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $326 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $130 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $194 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $485 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $486 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 11 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $245 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $179 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $527 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $339 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $188 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $154 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $226 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $135 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1,147 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $208 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $431 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $242 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $204 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $323 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $254 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $436 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $398 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $459 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $580 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 0m
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 2h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 10h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 11h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 13h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 14h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 16h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 17h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 20h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 21h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 22h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 24h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $58 25h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 27h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 28h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 29h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 32h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 33h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 35h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 36h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 38h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 40h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 41h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 42h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 47h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.82 · official $56.82 (match) · 1408 history records