Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:33:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A9 0xa93d…6ebf other 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 584d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate25%17W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$263per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 75% −$14
politics 15% −$6
other 6% $0
sports 1% +$2
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +21.2% +9.7% 29% 29% +2.7%
≤30d 23 +6.4% -3.8% 13% 9% -6.4%
≤90d 55 +3.7% -6.2% 22% 15% -8.3%
all 67 +1.5% -8.2% 25% 12% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 12% -9.6%
10% -17.0% 12% -18.3%
15% -25.0% 12% -26.2%
20% -32.4% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×2.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

584d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses17 / 50
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)67 / 69
History coverage584d
Avg bet$263
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $26 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 25 $16 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $13 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $12 $0 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 21 $11 +$9 +76%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 21 $7 +$5 +73%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 19 $16 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $10 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 03 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $91 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $34 $0 +0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 23 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 18 $67 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers May 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $73 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 11 $79 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $76 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $73 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $79 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6? May 06 $35 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 30 $75 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $75 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 23 $78 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 23 $74 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $72 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 22 $74 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $76 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $78 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $77 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $79 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $77 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Apr 11 $23 +$1 +3%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 10 $7 +$4 +48%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 08 $8 +$8 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 2h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $5 24h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $5 25h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $13 3d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $13 3d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $12 4d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 4d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 56¢ $11 5d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 57¢ $7 5d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $16 6d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $16 7d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $30 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 8d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 8d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 10d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $29 13d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 14d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 15d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 15d
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $14 16d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 16d
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $7 16d
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.29 · official $59.29 (match) · 252 history records