Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:43:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa93e…0a8c sports 796 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 66d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,094 (-3%) realized −$1,102 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%425W / 332L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day36.5pace
Fees−$332est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$2,227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$71
14 days+$76
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$611
other 31% +$345
crypto 9% −$534
world 0% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +1.1% -8.5% 43% 36% -8.3%
≤30d 52 +0.3% -9.3% 46% 38% -8.2%
≤90d 757 -2.6% -11.9% 56% 50% -11.3%
all 757 -2.6% -11.9% 56% 50% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 50% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 43% -19.8%
15% -28.0% 35% -27.5%
20% -35.1% 27% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$39 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$2,227
Realized−$1,102
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses425 / 332
Est. fees paid−$332
Open positions41
Markets (closed)757 / 796
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$54
Trades / day36.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 41 History 757 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jordan 63¢ 62¢ $192 $190 −$2 (-1%)
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score No 44¢ 44¢ $164 $162 −$2 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score No 53¢ 52¢ $160 $158 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Austria 80¢ 80¢ $154 $153 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: France (-4.5) Iraq 81¢ 80¢ $138 $137 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? No 51¢ 48¢ $129 $123 −$5 (-4%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Senegal 78¢ 78¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Under 49¢ 48¢ $117 $114 −$3 (-3%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? No 61¢ 60¢ $113 $111 −$2 (-2%)
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 48¢ 50¢ $77 $79 +$2 (+3%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Over 37¢ 36¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Under 34¢ 33¢ $70 $68 −$2 (-3%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Ecuador 74¢ 74¢ $59 $59 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? No 78¢ 78¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 35¢ 34¢ $55 $54 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $42 $43 +$1 (+3%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) Türkiye 73¢ 72¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Under 72¢ 69¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-3%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 39¢ 78¢ $17 $35 +$17 (+101%)
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Over 36¢ 36¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 35¢ 68¢ $14 $28 +$14 (+96%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? No 36¢ 36¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Under 72¢ 72¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? No 78¢ 78¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 22 $16 −$1 -7%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $252 −$15 -6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 22 $114 −$3 -2%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 22 $139 −$4 -3%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 22 $157 −$25 -16%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 22 $166 −$2 -2%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 22 $152 −$9 -6%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $233 −$8 -3%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $209 −$9 -4%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 22 $206 −$4 -2%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 22 $29 −$1 -3%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $173 +$79 +45%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $79 −$17 -22%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $120 −$19 -16%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $195 −$25 -13%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $52 −$30 -59%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $108 −$49 -45%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $98 −$52 -53%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $205 −$105 -51%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $143 −$79 -55%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 22 $55 −$55 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 22 $107 −$22 -21%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 22 $53 −$53 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $20 −$1 -3%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $20 +$25 +127%
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) Jun 22 $189 +$24 +13%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 +$6 +29%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $20 +$4 +18%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $202 +$185 +92%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $93 −$1 -1%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 22 $39 +$4 +11%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $189 +$32 +17%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $104 +$24 +23%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $71 +$27 +38%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $20 +$8 +42%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $186 +$3 +2%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $99 +$64 +64%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $163 +$72 +44%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $181 +$7 +4%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $177 +$5 +3%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $144 +$116 +81%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $40 −$2 -6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $23 +$10 +42%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $80 +$9 +12%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 +$7 +146%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $53 +$10 +19%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $38 +$7 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $14 0m
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 48¢ $20 0m
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 2m
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 2m
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 2m
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 3m
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $14 8m
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $5 10m
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Over 37¢ $9 12m
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Over 37¢ $7 12m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $20 21m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Austria 60¢ $20 23m
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $14 23m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 63¢ $20 23m
Spread: France (-4.5) BUY Iraq 81¢ $18 24m
Spread: France (-4.5) BUY Iraq 81¢ $20 24m
Spread: France (-4.5) BUY Iraq 81¢ $20 24m
Spread: France (-4.5) BUY Iraq 81¢ $20 24m
Spread: France (-4.5) BUY Iraq 81¢ $20 25m
Spread: France (-4.5) BUY Iraq 81¢ $20 27m
Spread: France (-4.5) BUY Iraq 81¢ $20 27m
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $5 32m
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL England 34¢ $15 32m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $19 34m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $19 34m
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $14 38m
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 35¢ $16 38m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Austria 60¢ $20 38m
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $5 42m
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $5 42m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,227.39 · official $2,227.42 (match) · 3500 history records