Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:44:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa943…f7d2 crypto 411 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$95 (-4%) realized −$95 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate34%138W / 273L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day24.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$16
14 days−$14
30 days−$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% +$17
other 19% −$52
finance 17% −$43
politics 3% −$15
tech 2% −$20
world 2% −$13
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 292 -2.4% -11.7% 44% 42% -8.5%
≤30d 411 -7.1% -15.9% 34% 31% -14.3%
≤90d 411 -7.1% -15.9% 34% 31% -14.3%
all 411 -7.1% -15.9% 34% 31% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.9% 31% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.0% 31% -22.5%
15% -31.3% 30% -30.0%
20% -38.1% 29% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$95
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses138 / 273
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)411 / 411
History coverage26d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day24.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 411 Trades
no open positions (157 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$10 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$4 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$3 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$12 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$10 +196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$9 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$10 +208%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 788 history records