trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | +1.1% | -8.5% | 29% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 8 | +1.0% | -8.6% | 38% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤90d | 15 | -2.0% | -11.4% | 33% | 0% | -10.8% |
| all | 26 | -2.1% | -11.4% | 42% | 0% | -11.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.4% | 0% | -11.5% |
| 10% | -19.9% | 0% | -20.0% |
| 15% | -27.6% | 0% | -27.7% |
| 20% | -34.7% | 0% | -34.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $39 | $39 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | No | 83¢ | 99¢ | $0 | $1 | +$0 (+20%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 23 | $10 | $0 | -2% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 23 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 23 | $2 | $0 | +10% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 21 | $60 | $0 | -0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 19 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 18 | $55 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 18 | $82 | $0 | +0% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | May 26 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab | May 25 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 25 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | May 24 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | May 23 | $3 | $0 | +8% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | May 22 | $3 | $0 | -2% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | May 21 | $12 | $0 | -3% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 21 | $16 | −$7 | -42% |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Dec 10 | $1 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? | Dec 10 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? | Jun 02 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 30 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? | May 07 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Doc Rivers make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of | Apr 08 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Wizards | Mar 04 | $14 | −$5 | -38% |
| Ohio State vs. USC | Feb 26 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Delaware vs. Charleston | Feb 26 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Albany vs. UMBC | Feb 26 | $12 | $0 | +0% |