Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:16:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A9 0xa949…7f5b sports 220 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$911 (-2%) realized −$766 · open −$145
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%98W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$186per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$579est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$257
7 days+$291
14 days−$1,654
30 days−$1,502
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,231
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -6.9% -15.7% 45% 45% -6.5%
≤30d 169 -17.5% -25.4% 43% 43% -13.8%
≤90d 218 -15.4% -23.5% 45% 45% -12.0%
all 218 -15.4% -23.5% 45% 45% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 45% -12.0%
10% -30.8% 45% -20.4%
15% -37.5% 43% -28.1%
20% -43.6% 36% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$178 vs −$154 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$766
Unrealized−$145
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses98 / 120
Est. fees paid−$579
Open positions2
Markets (closed)218 / 220
History coverage54d
Avg bet$186
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 218 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Natus Vincere 39¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 46¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 118 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $203 +$181 +89%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $404 +$233 +58%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $239 −$235 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $184 −$180 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $202 +$133 +66%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $289 +$211 +73%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $77 −$75 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $203 +$174 +86%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $305 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $154 +$528 +344%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $102 +$161 +158%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $201 +$55 +27%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $101 +$94 +93%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $204 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $303 +$115 +38%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $47 −$46 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $203 +$161 +79%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $303 −$300 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $204 +$351 +172%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $204 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $97 +$219 +226%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $303 −$300 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $204 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $244 +$370 +152%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $404 +$211 +52%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $77 −$75 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $101 +$29 +29%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $132 +$201 +152%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $303 +$145 +48%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $406 −$400 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $255 +$413 +162%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $330 +$376 +114%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 08 $202 +$120 +60%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $102 −$100 -98%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 08 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $405 +$251 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 46¢ $46 50m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $384 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 52¢ $203 4h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 39¢ $102 4h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 34¢ $204 5h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $638 8h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 48¢ $239 8h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 63¢ $404 8h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 31¢ $184 27h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $336 28h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $499 28h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 30¢ $77 29h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 57¢ $289 29h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 60¢ $202 29h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 22¢ $102 30h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL Monte 100¢ $377 31h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 46¢ $305 31h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 25¢ $102 32h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 53¢ $203 33h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $681 2d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) SELL 9z 100¢ $263 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 46¢ $203 2d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 38¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Legacy 100¢ $256 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 22¢ $154 2d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 78¢ $201 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 100¢ $196 2d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 28¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 51¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 38¢ $204 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.18 · official $0.18 (match) · 349 history records