Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:53:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa94a…280f world 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 356d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$182 (+2%) realized +$182 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate95%35W / 2L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$315per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$6
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% +$252
world 8% +$16
other 6% −$6
weather 4% −$81
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 7 +3.4% -6.5% 100% 0% -7.0%
≤90d 21 +2.3% -7.4% 100% 0% -7.7%
all 37 -0.7% -10.2% 95% 5% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 5% -8.1%
10% -18.8% 0% -16.9%
15% -26.6% 0% -25.0%
20% -33.8% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$68 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.34 per $1 lost it wins $2.34
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

356d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized+$182
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses35 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage356d
Avg bet$315
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Álex Baena be in Spain's Starting 11? No 100¢ 100¢ $113 $114 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $56 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $54 +$3 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $54 +$2 +4%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $108 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $106 +$2 +2%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $50 +$2 +5%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 May 05 $9 $0 +1%
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 May 05 $20 $0 +1%
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 May 05 $47 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 25 $98 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 22 $49 $0 +0%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 22 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Tennessee win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 14 $19 $0 +1%
Will Nebraska win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 14 $19 $0 +1%
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 14 $19 $0 +2%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 14 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 14 $19 +$1 +7%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 26 $57 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Mar 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? Mar 18 $28 $0 +1%
Over $30M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 30 $56 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 10 $25 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 10 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November? Dec 25 $54 $0 +1%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Nov 29 $116 −$49 -42%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch? Nov 25 $50 +$2 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 17 $50 $0 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Nov 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Hyperliquid daily fees above $8M in 2025? Oct 26 $157 +$33 +21%
US forces in Iran before August? Jul 23 $177 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jul 23 $93 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jul 23 $87 −$87 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 75°F or below on July Jul 23 $329 +$1 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down on July 22? Jul 23 $9,333 +$218 +2%
Bitcoin all time high before July? Jul 01 $145 +$32 +22%
Major cyberattack on Iran in June? Jun 25 $144 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Álex Baena be in Spain's Starting 11? BUY No 100¢ $113 1h
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $56 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 94¢ $54 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $54 11d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $108 21d
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? BUY No 98¢ $17 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? BUY No 98¢ $89 25d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 33d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $16 33d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 95¢ $50 33d
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 BUY No 99¢ $16 51d
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 BUY No 99¢ $4 51d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 BUY No 99¢ $3 51d
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 BUY No 98¢ $47 51d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 BUY No 99¢ $5 51d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $98 54d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? BUY No 100¢ $49 62d
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? BUY No 99¢ $49 62d
Will Tennessee win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 99¢ $19 81d
Will Nebraska win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 99¢ $19 81d
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 98¢ $19 81d
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 94¢ $19 81d
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 94¢ $19 81d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 100¢ $57 89d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? BUY No 99¢ $28 136d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $28 136d
Over $30M committed to the Ranger public sale? BUY Yes 99¢ $56 156d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 98¢ $25 172d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 98¢ $29 172d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $54 198d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.77 · official $113.77 (match) · 93 history records