Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:47:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa94c…ed1c sports 119 markets active 2h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%18W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% −$4
other 17% $0
politics 13% −$2
economics 12% −$1
culture 9% −$1
world 7% −$1
crypto 7% −$1
tech 4% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 118 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses18 / 100
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 119
History coverage160d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $49 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 23 $307 −$1 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 23 $211 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 23 $141 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 23 $4 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Feb 23 $45 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 23 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 23 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 21 $81 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 21 $213 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 21 $226 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 21 $65 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 21 $96 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 21 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Feb 21 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 21 $163 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 21 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 21 $111 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $51 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)? Feb 21 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 21 $150 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 21 $321 −$1 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 21 $52 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 21 $210 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 21 $112 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 20 $136 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 20 $158 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 20 $50 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 20 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 20 $48 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 20 $100 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 20 $52 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 20 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 20 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 20 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 20 $53 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 20 $166 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 20 $47 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 20 $117 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 20 $51 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 20 $55 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 20 $102 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 20 $118 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 20 $49 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 20 $53 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 20 $53 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $42 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $42 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $42 7d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $49 15d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $49 15d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $48 29d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $48 30d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $51 43d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $51 44d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 96¢ $50 125d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 96¢ $50 125d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 97¢ $51 125d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 97¢ $51 125d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $43 125d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $43 125d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 96¢ $47 125d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $4 125d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $4 125d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 96¢ $48 125d
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 96¢ $45 125d
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 96¢ $45 125d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $8 125d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $8 125d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 91¢ $43 125d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 92¢ $43 125d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 96¢ $44 126d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 96¢ $45 126d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 98¢ $51 126d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 98¢ $51 126d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $45 126d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.19 · official $42.19 (match) · 527 history records