Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:13:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa94d…5ebb crypto 200 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$22 (-2%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate40%81W / 119L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day17.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -9.5% -18.1% 41% 41% -18.1%
≤30d 17 -9.5% -18.1% 41% 41% -18.1%
≤90d 200 -6.9% -15.8% 40% 28% -15.7%
all 200 -6.9% -15.8% 40% 28% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 28% -15.7%
10% -23.8% 14% -23.7%
15% -31.2% 8% -31.1%
20% -37.9% 4% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses81 / 119
Open positions0
Markets (closed)200 / 200
History coverage33d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 200 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$4 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$4 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 16 $5 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 16 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 16 $5 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 16 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 16 $10 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 16 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 16 $5 +$12 +239%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 16 $5 −$3 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 16 $5 −$4 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 16 $5 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 16 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 16 $15 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 16 $15 −$4 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 15 $10 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 15 $5 −$3 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 15 $10 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 15 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 15 $10 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 15 $5 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 15 $5 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 15 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 15 $5 +$8 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 15 $10 −$7 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 15 $5 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 15 $10 +$13 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 15 $5 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 15 $10 +$5 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 638 history records