Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:35:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A9 0xa954…cabf sports 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$45 (-3%) realized −$54 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%28W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$54
30 days−$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$125
other 19% −$40
crypto 10% −$14
politics 9% +$153
world 4% −$3
tech 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -19.7% -27.3% 55% 55% -10.5%
≤30d 21 -26.1% -33.1% 48% 48% -32.5%
≤90d 65 -18.5% -26.3% 43% 40% -13.1%
all 65 -18.5% -26.3% 43% 40% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 40% -13.1%
10% -33.3% 38% -21.4%
15% -39.8% 31% -29.0%
20% -45.7% 25% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$11 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses28 / 37
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage47d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Main Card) Shara Magomedov 79¢ 92¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main Jun 27 $13 −$13 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $48 +$15 +32%
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma Jun 27 $34 +$14 +40%
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) Jun 27 $24 +$10 +40%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, Jun 27 $4 +$2 +54%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 27 $5 +$3 +59%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 27 $12 +$7 +58%
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) Jun 27 $15 −$15 -99%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 27 $15 −$5 -33%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $27 −$27 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $6 +$6 +101%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 06 $13 −$13 -99%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 06 $6 +$5 +79%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 06 $8 +$5 +67%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 06 $12 −$12 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P Jun 06 $15 +$3 +21%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 May 21 $57 −$57 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 21 $5 −$3 -56%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5 May 21 $30 +$10 +33%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $16 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $44 +$28 +64%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score May 19 $25 +$18 +73%
Kasımpaşa SK vs. Galatasaray SK: Both Teams to Score May 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $61 −$60 -98%
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry May 17 $18 +$11 +62%
UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (Women's Bant May 16 $13 −$13 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Cody Brundage vs. Andre Petroski (Middleweight, Preli May 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 16 $13 −$13 -99%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 16 $10 +$5 +51%
UFC Fight Night: Nicolle Caliari vs. Shauna Bannon (Women's Strawweigh May 16 $80 +$18 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 16 $5 +$5 +99%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $107 +$111 +103%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $45 −$3 -6%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 14 $14 +$42 +290%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Manchester City FC 3 - 0 Crystal Palace FC? May 13 $2 +$7 +324%
Exact Score: Manchester City FC 3 - 1 Crystal Palace FC? May 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Manchester City FC 2 - 1 Crystal Palace FC? May 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Manchester City FC 2 - 0 Crystal Palace FC? May 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Manchester City FC 1 - 0 Crystal Palace FC? May 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Manchester City FC 0 - 0 Crystal Palace FC? May 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Shara Magomedov 79¢ $50 44m
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main BUY Nazim Sadykhov 66¢ $13 58m
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca SELL Asu Almabayev 100¢ $64 1h
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca BUY Asu Almabayev 75¢ $48 1h
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma SELL Ikram Aliskerov 100¢ $48 1h
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Ikram Aliskerov 71¢ $34 2h
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) SELL Farman Hasanov 100¢ $34 2h
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Farman Hasanov 79¢ $15 2h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 68¢ $15 3h
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Farman Hasanov 60¢ $9 3h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, SELL Nursulton Ruziboev 100¢ $6 3h
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 100¢ $8 3h
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 3h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 62¢ $5 3h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, BUY Nursulton Ruziboev 64¢ $4 3h
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 99¢ $19 3h
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) BUY Javier Reyes 69¢ $15 4h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 62¢ $12 4h
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 99¢ $13 4h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 77¢ $10 4h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 13d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $27 13d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main BUY Santiago Luna 47¢ $10 20d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 50¢ $10 20d
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) SELL Édgar Cháirez 100¢ $13 20d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 60¢ $13 20d
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 100¢ $11 20d
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) BUY Édgar Cháirez 49¢ $6 20d
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 100¢ $14 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.54 · official $58.54 (match) · 116 history records