Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:13:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa95a…6b78 sports 204 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (95 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,291 (+12%) realized +$1,261 · open +$30
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%108W / 91L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day94.5pace
Fees−$101est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$616now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$197
7 days+$191
14 days+$1,091
30 days+$1,436
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$432
other 35% +$1,024
world 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (95 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +27.3% +15.1% 57% 57% +3.9%
≤30d 199 +12.7% +1.9% 54% 54% +3.6%
≤90d 199 +12.7% +1.9% 54% 54% +3.6%
all 199 +12.7% +1.9% 54% 54% +3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover94.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.9% 54% +3.6%
10% ← realistic here -7.8% 52% -6.3%
15% -16.7% 47% -15.3%
20% -24.9% 40% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$44 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$616
Realized+$1,261
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses108 / 91
Est. fees paid−$101
Open positions5
Markets (closed)199 / 204
History coverage22d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day94.5
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? No 46¢ 42¢ $205 $189 −$17 (-8%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? No 44¢ 56¢ $146 $186 +$40 (+27%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 56¢ 40¢ $197 $139 −$58 (-29%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? No 38¢ 60¢ $31 $49 +$18 (+59%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Yes 23¢ 18¢ $60 $48 −$12 (-20%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $50 +$54 +108%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $147 +$144 +98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 24 $50 +$50 +100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Veronika Podrez Jun 24 $72 +$50 +70%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $44 +$50 +113%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $206 −$202 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 24 $40 +$10 +25%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $17 +$20 +119%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $6 +$30 +474%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $214 +$89 +41%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 +$10 +325%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $44 −$15 -35%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $52 +$10 +19%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $83 +$42 +51%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $94 +$18 +19%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $27 −$27 -99%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $46 −$46 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 19 $26 −$26 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $14 +$6 +40%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $151 +$18 +12%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $203 −$76 -38%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$7 +23%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $197 −$194 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $14 −$14 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$10 +108%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $175 +$335 +191%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +16%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 +$9 +88%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $196 +$224 +115%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2 +$8 +388%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $24 +$26 +108%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $8 +$2 +30%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $202 +$58 +29%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $26 −$16 -61%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $209 +$71 +34%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $208 −$206 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $34 −$33 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 +$5 +117%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $21 +$39 +181%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $5 +$5 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $50 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $50 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $49 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $49 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 44¢ $49 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 44¢ $49 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 45¢ $50 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 22¢ $29 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 24¢ $32 2h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 50¢ $49 4h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 50¢ $49 4h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 50¢ $48 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 46¢ $3 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 46¢ $7 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 46¢ $18 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 46¢ $3 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 46¢ $19 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 46¢ $3 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 46¢ $5 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 46¢ $2 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 46¢ $18 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 46¢ $3 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 46¢ $5 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 46¢ $3 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 46¢ $18 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 46¢ $1 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 46¢ $20 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 46¢ $8 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 46¢ $3 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 46¢ $19 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $616.03 · official $616.06 (match) · 2222 history records