Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:06:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa95a…e0be other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$103 (-9%) realized −$115 · open +$12
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%9W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$96
sports 32% −$87
crypto 8% +$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +24.6% +12.7% 33% 30% -19.6%
≤30d 27 +24.6% +12.7% 33% 30% -19.6%
≤90d 27 +24.6% +12.7% 33% 30% -19.6%
all 27 +24.6% +12.7% 33% 30% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.7% 30% -19.6%
10% +1.9% 30% -27.3%
15% -7.9% 30% -34.3%
20% -16.9% 26% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +97% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$26 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$115
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses9 / 18
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage5d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 10¢ 22¢ $10 $22 +$12 (+115%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $156 −$5 -4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $92 +$64 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $61 −$21 -34%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$2 +5%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $41 +$29 +71%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 +$20 +97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $76 −$75 -99%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $9 +$44 +473%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 +$35 +344%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$7 -73%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $138 −$135 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$8 -82%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $176 −$9 -5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $118 +$57 +48%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 +$80 +968%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 +$7 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes $0 36m
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 66¢ $151 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $156 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $156 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $92 15h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 17¢ $11 16h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 16h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $32 16h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 54¢ $29 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 55¢ $30 18h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $30 18h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 92¢ $69 19h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 21h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $30 27h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $41 27h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $20 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $20 27h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $31 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 77¢ $76 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 91¢ $45 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes $3 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.50 · official $21.50 (match) · 46 history records