Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:41:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa95b…9e16 other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 364d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate36%10W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$3
other 24% $0
politics 17% +$1
crypto 6% $0
culture 5% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -3.2% -12.5% 40% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 5 -3.2% -12.5% 40% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 7 -15.7% -23.7% 43% 0% -11.0%
all 28 -2.6% -11.8% 36% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 4% -9.9%
10% -20.3% 4% -18.5%
15% -28.0% 4% -26.4%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

364d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses10 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage364d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $26 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $57 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $11 −$2 -14%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $32 $0 +1%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? Apr 01 $1 $0 +6%
Will Antonio Saravia win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Apr 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 24 $21 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jun 24 $3 $0 -11%
Will Elon tweet 265–279 times June 20–27? Jun 23 $9 $0 -1%
Israel strike on Iran on June 24? Jun 22 $8 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 205–219 times June 13–20? Jun 22 $5 $0 +3%
Will Atletico Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 22 $2 $0 +7%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Jun 21 $7 $0 +0%
Israel strike on Iran on June 22? Jun 21 $22 $0 +0%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 21 $49 $0 -0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 21 $23 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 20 $5 $0 -1%
Will María Galindo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will Israel declare war on Iran by Friday? Jun 20 $26 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be from another party? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +40%
Will Solana reach $220 in June? Jun 19 $29 $0 +1%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 18 $25 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will Gonzalo Winter win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 17 $29 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $29 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $29 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $24 13h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $3 13h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $14 17h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $12 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $4 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $22 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $28 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 55¢ $28 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 56¢ $28 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $25 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $8 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $32 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $29 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 54¢ $22 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 54¢ $8 6d
Will Antonio Saravia win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? BUY Yes $0 347d
Will Antonio Saravia win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? BUY Yes $0 347d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $9 351d
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $20 355d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $0 355d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $1 355d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $1 355d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $0 355d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $9 357d
Will Elon tweet 265–279 times June 20–27? SELL No 98¢ $9 357d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 119 history records