Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:04:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
A9 0xa95c…1b63 sports 97 markets active 2h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$5,247 (+76%) realized +$5,248 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate60%58W / 38L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$20
14 days+$13
30 days−$176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$5,229
other 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +11.2% +0.6% 100% 50% +1.0%
≤30d 6 -62.9% -66.5% 33% 17% -52.2%
≤90d 36 +36.1% +23.1% 64% 61% +3.1%
all 96 +37.0% +24.0% 60% 56% +9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.0% 56% +9.7%
10% +12.1% 44% -0.8%
15% +1.3% 35% -10.4%
20% -8.6% 29% -19.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +76% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +70% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$38 · ×3.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.6 per $1 lost it wins $4.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$5,248
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses58 / 38
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)96 / 97
History coverage163d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Under 90¢ 88¢ $71 $70 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ismael Saibari: 3+ goals Jun 20 $80 +$5 +6%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $96 +$15 +16%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 12 $8 −$7 -98%
Makarska: Maria Timofeeva vs Yasmine Kabbaj Jun 05 $8 −$8 -98%
World Championships: Czechia vs. Norway May 24 $81 −$80 -99%
World Championships: Norway vs. Denmark May 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Toronto Tempo vs. Los Angeles Sparks May 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Alba Berlin vs. Science City Jena May 10 $102 +$29 +29%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $50 +$18 +36%
Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Apr 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 20 $90 +$16 +18%
Luke Kennard: Assists O/U 5.5 Apr 19 $11 +$7 +67%
Sharks vs. Jets: O/U 6.5 Apr 16 $10 +$9 +89%
Kraken vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 Apr 16 $10 +$10 +93%
Spread: D.C. United SC (-2.5) Apr 10 $20 +$7 +35%
CSyD Defensa y Justicia vs. CA Talleres: O/U 2.5 Apr 09 $12 +$147 +1224%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Sara Bejlek vs Panna Udvardy Apr 06 $600 −$199 -33%
Spread: New York City FC (-2.5) Apr 06 $29 +$15 +52%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Apr 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Athletics vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Apr 01 $15 −$15 -100%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Rinky Hijik Apr 01 $110 +$185 +168%
Clippers vs. Bucks Mar 30 $281 +$35 +12%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 28 $31 +$12 +38%
Panathinaikos vs. Monaco Mar 28 $70 +$21 +30%
Wizards vs. Warriors Mar 28 $143 +$20 +14%
Spread: AS Roma (-2.5) Mar 27 $13 +$12 +91%
Tianjin Pioneers vs. Shanghai Sharks Mar 27 $30 +$59 +197%
NRFI: Detroit Tigers vs. San Diego Padres Mar 27 $227 +$314 +138%
Spread: EC Bahia (-2.5) Mar 24 $17 +$3 +17%
Miami Hurricanes vs. Purdue Boilermakers: O/U 147.5 Mar 24 $53 −$53 -100%
Kraken vs. Blue Jackets Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gr Mar 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bucks vs. Suns Mar 24 $93 −$93 -100%
Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. UCLA Bruins (W) Mar 23 $10 +$7 +74%
Syracuse Orange vs. Connecticut Huskies (W) Mar 23 $10 +$7 +74%
Seattle Redhawks vs. Auburn Tigers Mar 23 $57 +$8 +13%
High Point Panthers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Mar 22 $209 +$33 +16%
Zach LaVine: Points O/U 16.5 Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Trey Murphy III: Assists O/U 3.5 Mar 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Arizona Wildcats Mar 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Stonehill Skyhawks vs. St. Francis (PA) Red Flash Mar 21 $15 −$15 -100%
South Carolina State Bulldogs vs. North Carolina Central Eagles Mar 21 $96 −$96 -100%
South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Ole Miss Rebels Mar 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Northwestern State Demons vs. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks: O/U 142.5 Mar 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Kris Dunn: Rebounds O/U 2.5 Mar 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Hobart International: Iva Jovic vs Janice Tjen Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
High Point Panthers vs. Wisconsin Badgers Mar 21 $66 −$66 -100%
First Round Pool A: Cuba vs. Canada Mar 21 $96 −$96 -100%
Cody Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Mar 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Albany Great Danes vs. Maine Black Bears Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $72 1h
Ismael Saibari: 3+ goals BUY No 94¢ $80 3d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 37¢ $8 8d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 86¢ $96 8d
Makarska: Maria Timofeeva vs Yasmine Kabbaj BUY Yasmine Kabbaj 20¢ $8 15d
World Championships: Czechia vs. Norway BUY Czechia 79¢ $81 27d
World Championships: Norway vs. Denmark BUY Denmark 45¢ $102 28d
Toronto Tempo vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Los Angeles Sparks 70¢ $15 35d
Alba Berlin vs. Science City Jena BUY Alba Berlin 77¢ $102 42d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 73¢ $50 48d
Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 4.5 BUY Yes $21 56d
Celtics vs. 76ers SELL Celtics 75¢ $106 61d
Luke Kennard: Assists O/U 5.5 BUY No 59¢ $11 63d
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY Celtics 63¢ $90 63d
Sharks vs. Jets: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 51¢ $19 65d
Kraken vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 54¢ $20 65d
Sharks vs. Jets: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 27¢ $10 67d
Kraken vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 28¢ $10 67d
Spread: D.C. United SC (-2.5) SELL Philadelphia Union 85¢ $27 71d
CSyD Defensa y Justicia vs. CA Talleres: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 63¢ $159 72d
Spread: D.C. United SC (-2.5) BUY Philadelphia Union 63¢ $20 74d
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Sara Bejlek vs Panna Udvardy SELL Sara Bejlek 50¢ $401 75d
Spread: New York City FC (-2.5) SELL Vancouver Whitecaps FC 94¢ $44 75d
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Sara Bejlek vs Panna Udvardy BUY Sara Bejlek 74¢ $300 75d
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Sara Bejlek vs Panna Udvardy BUY Sara Bejlek 74¢ $300 75d
Spread: New York City FC (-2.5) BUY Vancouver Whitecaps FC 62¢ $29 77d
CSyD Defensa y Justicia vs. CA Talleres: O/U 2.5 BUY Under $1 82d
CSyD Defensa y Justicia vs. CA Talleres: O/U 2.5 BUY Under $10 82d
CSyD Defensa y Justicia vs. CA Talleres: O/U 2.5 BUY Under $1 82d
Athletics vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 43¢ $15 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.16 · official $70.16 (match) · 220 history records