Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:15:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa95c…171d crypto 365 markets active 0h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$36 (+1%) realized +$47 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate95%347W / 17L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$19
14 days+$19
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 +1.1% -8.6% 98% 1% -8.0%
≤30d 87 +1.1% -8.6% 98% 1% -8.0%
≤90d 364 -0.5% -9.9% 95% 6% -9.0%
all 364 -0.5% -9.9% 95% 6% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 6% -9.0%
10% -18.6% 2% -17.7%
15% -26.4% 1% -25.7%
20% -33.6% 1% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$7 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$47
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses347 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)364 / 365
History coverage84d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 364 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Down 95¢ 4¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 23 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 23 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 23 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 23 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 23 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $90 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $108 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $88 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $15 −$5 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 23 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 23 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 23 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 23 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $63 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.42 · official $1.62 · 809 history records