Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:45:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A9 0xa95e…11f6 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$362 (+11%) realized +$484 · open −$122
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$654
7 days+$114
14 days+$138
30 days+$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$165
sports 8% −$154
crypto 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -35.0% -41.2% 31% 31% -5.2%
≤30d 14 -1.2% -10.6% 36% 36% -4.4%
≤90d 14 -1.2% -10.6% 36% 36% -4.4%
all 14 -1.2% -10.6% 36% 36% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 36% -4.4%
10% -19.1% 36% -13.6%
15% -26.9% 36% -21.9%
20% -34.1% 36% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$265 vs −$132 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized+$484
Unrealized−$122
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage10d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 48¢ 24¢ $250 $128 −$122 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 27 $262 −$250 -96%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 27 $262 −$154 -59%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $262 −$250 -95%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $579 +$711 +123%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $210 −$31 -15%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $345 −$330 -96%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $418 +$233 +56%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $283 +$246 +87%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists Jun 23 $195 −$120 -62%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $208 +$112 +54%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$24 +438%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 47¢ $73 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 48¢ $84 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 48¢ $105 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $262 21h
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL England 17¢ $109 22h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 37¢ $262 23h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $262 44h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 52¢ $639 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 53¢ $651 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 13¢ $106 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $210 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 38¢ $178 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 41¢ $210 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $263 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $345 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 86¢ $651 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 46¢ $105 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 53¢ $313 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 79¢ $265 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 79¢ $264 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $273 4d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists SELL Yes 15¢ $31 5d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists SELL Yes 15¢ $31 5d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists BUY Yes 53¢ $10 5d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $320 5d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists BUY Yes 21¢ $26 5d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $208 5d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists BUY Yes 21¢ $158 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $9 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.36 · official $144.08 · 40 history records