Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:04:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A9 0xa962…8978 other 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 291d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13,873 (-24%) realized −$13,446 · open −$427
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate36%34W / 60L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$492per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$8,673now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$559
14 days−$3,741
30 days−$3,741
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$4,102
politics 15% −$1,174
world 14% −$1,679
tech 13% −$4,225
economics 12% −$1,657
sports 6% +$398
crypto 2% −$222
culture 2% −$1,025
finance 1% −$300
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-37.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +57.0% +42.1% 100% 50% +74.3%
≤30d 3 +4.7% -5.3% 67% 33% -78.6%
≤90d 4 +12.0% +1.3% 75% 50% -69.3%
all 94 -30.9% -37.5% 36% 28% -34.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.5% 28% -34.7%
10% -43.5% 24% -40.9%
15% -48.9% 20% -46.6%
20% -53.9% 17% -51.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% too few recent
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$900) neutral
Persistence
early -37% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$271 vs −$380 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

291d coverage
Net worth$8,673
Realized−$13,446
Unrealized−$427
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses34 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions26
Markets (closed)94 / 120
History coverage291d
Avg bet$492
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,100 $1,066 −$34 (-3%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Yes 60¢ 56¢ $1,000 $936 −$64 (-6%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $700 $691 −$9 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $600 $620 +$20 (+3%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $500 $500 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $500 $494 −$6 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $500 $490 −$10 (-2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $400 $397 −$3 (-1%)
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes $300 $310 +$10 (+3%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 56¢ 34¢ $500 $298 −$202 (-40%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $300 $296 −$4 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $300 $296 −$4 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $300 $280 −$20 (-7%)
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes $300 $272 −$28 (-9%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-2%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 61¢ 46¢ $200 $152 −$48 (-24%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 18 $500 +$556 +111%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 15 $103 +$3 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $4,444 −$4,300 -97%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 24 $500 +$169 +34%
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 18 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $1,025 −$1,025 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 15 $100 +$567 +567%
Will Hillary say "Plane" during her Epstein testimony? Feb 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Hillary say "Island" during her Epstein testimony? Feb 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? Feb 28 $300 −$300 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $300 −$300 -100%
Starmer out by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $100 −$100 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? Feb 28 $1,000 −$581 -58%
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026? Feb 28 $1,000 −$523 -52%
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first? Feb 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30? Feb 28 $600 +$275 +46%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Miami vs. Indiana Feb 14 $1,000 +$333 +33%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 14 $1,100 +$494 +45%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 08 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 08 $1,000 +$688 +69%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Jan 18 $950 +$511 +54%
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31? Jan 02 $300 −$300 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? Jan 02 $800 −$800 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026? Jan 02 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025? Jan 02 $500 +$500 +100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31? Jan 02 $1,000 +$136 +14%
TikTok sale announced in 2025? Dec 31 $500 +$333 +67%
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 in 2025? Dec 28 $540 +$15 +3%
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026? Dec 22 $1,600 −$1,600 -100%
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025? Dec 22 $1,100 +$58 +5%
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration in 2025? Dec 22 $1,200 +$75 +6%
Maduro out by February 28, 2026? Dec 22 $500 −$500 -100%
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? Dec 22 $900 −$900 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15? Dec 22 $945 +$308 +33%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Dec 07 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.2% in December? Dec 07 $40 −$40 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in December? Dec 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China by November 30? Dec 05 $500 +$287 +57%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Dec 05 $900 +$548 +61%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Dec 05 $900 +$57 +6%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Nov 25 $80 +$7 +9%
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be less than 1.0%? Nov 25 $10 −$8 -78%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Nov 25 $200 −$142 -71%
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%? Nov 23 $20 −$19 -94%
Anthropic acquired in 2025? Nov 23 $50 −$45 -91%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? Nov 03 $1,099 +$321 +29%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Nov 03 $1,500 +$972 +65%
Blue Jays vs. Dodgers Oct 29 $174 −$174 -100%
Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 29 $400 +$4 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $205 1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $204 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $407 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $515 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $509 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $204 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $203 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $306 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $404 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $511 1h
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes $308 1h
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $205 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $308 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $307 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $309 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes $308 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $307 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 3d
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? SELL OpenAI 23¢ $106 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 61¢ $202 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,672.79 · official $8,664.81 (match) · 233 history records