Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:47:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A9 0xa963…df11 other 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$964 (+0%) realized +$964 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate20%26W / 106L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$1,753per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$262now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$19
14 days−$5
30 days−$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$120
other 42% +$41
sports 9% +$1,016
world 3% −$5
economics 1% −$2
tech 1% −$1
culture 1% −$2
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 44 -0.3% -9.8% 11% 7% -9.7%
≤90d 99 -1.6% -10.9% 10% 7% -9.7%
all 132 +8.1% -2.2% 20% 16% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 16% -9.2%
10% -11.5% 16% -17.9%
15% -20.1% 15% -25.8%
20% -27.9% 11% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,073) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +16% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$10 · ×7.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$262
Realized+$964
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses26 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage124d
Avg bet$1,753
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $261 $262 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $863 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $1,249 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,516 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $5,451 −$7 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,053 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $852 −$1 -0%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 13 $851 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 11 $1,937 −$3 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $979 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $5,734 −$6 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $864 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $1,994 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $2,201 −$2 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $1,176 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $6,990 −$7 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,741 −$4 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 06 $67 +$45 +67%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $2,465 −$3 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $2,863 −$3 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 04 $66 −$66 -100%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,059 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $962 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $46 +$57 +124%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $2,911 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,157 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 02 $268 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $542 +$3 +0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,618 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,468 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $5,741 −$6 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $3,382 −$5 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $650 −$1 -0%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $57 −$57 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 25 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $3,150 −$3 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 22 $55 +$56 +101%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $4,113 −$5 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $1,083 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $1,271 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $6,539 −$7 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $1,226 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 09 $1,283 −$2 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $1,271 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $20,581 −$22 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $861 1h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $863 2h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $219 4h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $220 6h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $469 22h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $470 23h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $483 24h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $484 25h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $288 27h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $288 29h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,051 2d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,053 3d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $851 3d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $852 3d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,031 5d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $781 6d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $848 6d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $251 6d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $851 7d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $856 7d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $857 8d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $978 8d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $979 8d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,056 8d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,057 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $862 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $864 9d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $758 9d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $759 9d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $904 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $261.56 · official $261.56 (match) · 491 history records