Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:09:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A9 0xa964…3ef7 crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+25%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -42.0% -47.6% 50% 50% -13.6%
≤30d 11 -0.3% -9.8% 64% 64% +9.4%
≤90d 11 -0.3% -9.8% 64% 64% +9.4%
all 11 -0.3% -9.8% 64% 64% +9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 64% +9.4%
10% -18.4% 45% -1.0%
15% -26.3% 36% -10.6%
20% -33.5% 18% -19.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +21% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.26 per $1 lost it wins $2.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage14d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records