Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:42:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa965…151e crypto 170 markets active 2h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$931 (-3%) realized −$942 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate94%159W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$362now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$43
14 days+$43
30 days−$972
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$972
other 1% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 169 -3.9% -13.0% 94% 3% -12.3%
≤90d 169 -3.9% -13.0% 94% 3% -12.3%
all 169 -3.9% -13.0% 94% 3% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 3% -12.3%
10% -21.4% 1% -20.7%
15% -29.0% 1% -28.4%
20% -35.9% 1% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$145 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$362
Realized−$942
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses159 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)169 / 170
History coverage27d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $351 $362 +$11 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 26 $370 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $369 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 26 $360 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 26 $360 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 26 $363 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 26 $356 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 26 $238 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 26 $64 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $350 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 25 $350 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 25 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $350 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 24 $352 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 24 $350 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 24 $349 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 24 $349 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 24 $346 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 24 $345 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 24 $345 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 23 $344 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 23 $343 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 22 $342 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $341 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $340 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 22 $340 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 22 $339 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 21 $338 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 03 $128 −$128 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 03 $122 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 03 $121 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 03 $119 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 03 $116 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 03 $114 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 03 $113 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 03 $116 −$115 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 03 $114 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 03 $113 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 03 $183 −$182 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 03 $181 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 03 $179 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 03 $178 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 03 $175 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 03 $173 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 03 $170 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 03 $169 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 03 $163 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 03 $161 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 03 $159 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 03 $158 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 03 $150 +$9 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $370 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $369 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $360 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $360 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $363 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $356 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $238 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $35 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $29 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $350 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $350 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $8 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $350 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $352 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $350 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $349 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $349 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $346 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $345 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $345 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $344 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $343 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $342 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $341 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $340 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $340 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $339 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $338 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $359 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $362.13 · official $362.13 (match) · 339 history records