Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:22:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A9
0xa966…43cd
other · 31 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$15 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$15 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$72
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses9 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)20 / 31
History coverage3d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%
Chart Positions 11 History 20 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Under 57¢ 55¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 81¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals No 50¢ 49¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals No 50¢ 49¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Yes 50¢ 44¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 19¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Yes 57¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Yes $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Yes 13¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Yes 15¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 65¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Morocco? Yes $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Raphinha: 1+ goals Yes 34¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$13 +129%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +38%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 +$9 +172%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$9 +172%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +44%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 55% −$9
sports 45% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals BUY No 50¢ $5 1h
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals BUY No 50¢ $5 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 11h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 11h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $10 14h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 14h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $3 15h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $5 26h
Raphinha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $5 26h
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 26h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $10 26h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $5 26h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 26h
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 BUY Yes 57¢ $5 26h
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline BUY Spurs 63¢ $5 26h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $10 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 26h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes $3 26h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes $3 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 37h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -15.7% -23.7% 45% 45% -21.4%
≤30d 20 -15.7% -23.7% 45% 45% -21.4%
≤90d 20 -15.7% -23.7% 45% 45% -21.4%
all 20 -15.7% -23.7% 45% 45% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 45% -21.4%
10% -31.0% 45% -28.9%
15% -37.7% 45% -35.8%
20% -43.8% 30% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.93 · official $71.93 (match) · 45 history records