Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:31:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa967…f0b4 crypto 309 markets active 2h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$138 (-1%) realized −$39 · open −$99
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate40%123W / 185L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$122est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$14
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$808
crypto 41% −$179
other 11% +$47
politics 2% +$290
economics 0% −$30
finance 0% −$20
world 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 12 -80.5% -82.4% 0% 0% -73.4%
≤90d 199 -18.3% -26.1% 28% 25% -10.4%
all 308 -15.9% -23.9% 40% 31% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 31% -11.8%
10% -31.2% 23% -20.2%
15% -37.9% 20% -27.9%
20% -43.9% 15% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$23 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$39
Unrealized−$99
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses123 / 185
Est. fees paid−$122
Open positions1
Markets (closed)308 / 309
History coverage164d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 308 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Pakistan 91¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 143 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in May 2026? May 29 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 25 $7 −$4 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 24 $4 −$4 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $11 −$3 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $4 −$2 -53%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $25 −$24 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $17 −$5 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in May 2026? May 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 21 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $11 −$10 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 21 $6 −$5 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 21 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 21 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026? May 20 $1 +$116 +11054%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026? May 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 17 $2 +$2 +91%
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings - W May 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 14 $388 −$383 -98%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians - Who wins the t May 14 $36 +$34 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $317 −$163 -52%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 13 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 13? May 13 $5 $0 -6%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 13 $4 −$4 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 13 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $264 −$63 -24%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad - Who win May 12 $12 −$2 -16%
Will Pakistan win? May 12 $13 −$12 -98%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $354 −$248 -70%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals - Who wins the t May 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sorana Cirstea vs Linda Noskova May 11 $34 −$33 -98%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 10 $417 +$872 +209%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $1,144 −$270 -24%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians - May 10 $17 +$8 +45%
ODI Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand - Wh May 10 $4 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 91¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 9d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 9d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 9d
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in May 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 22d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 27d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 27d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 27d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $8 27d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 27d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 29d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 29d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $12 29d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $19 29d
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in May 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 30d
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in May 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 30d
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in May 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 30d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 30d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 30d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 30d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 30d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 30d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 30d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 890 history records