Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:15:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa968…3f0f sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$59 (-18%) realized −$46 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$12
other 24% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-36.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -29.8% -36.5% 36% 29% -18.7%
≤30d 14 -29.8% -36.5% 36% 29% -18.7%
≤90d 14 -29.8% -36.5% 36% 29% -18.7%
all 14 -29.8% -36.5% 36% 29% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.5% 29% -18.7%
10% -42.6% 29% -26.5%
15% -48.1% 29% -33.6%
20% -53.2% 14% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$13 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$46
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)14 / 17
History coverage2d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 56¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+21%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 38¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Under 33¢ $20 $6 −$14 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $61 +$27 +44%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $27 +$10 +38%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $10 −$8 -78%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$7 -68%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $25 +$31 +122%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $13 +$21 +160%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $13 $0 +1%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $52 −$32 -62%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$5 -52%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 33¢ $20 57m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $13 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 99¢ $62 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $40 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 43¢ $26 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $20 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 85¢ $19 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 83¢ $19 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 17¢ $2 5h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $10 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $27 7h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 17¢ $3 7h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 8h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 13h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $20 27h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 44¢ $25 29h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 93¢ $34 29h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $13 31h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 49¢ $13 31h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 28¢ $6 32h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 13¢ $6 32h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $13 32h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 27¢ $13 32h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $52 33h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $2 34h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 22¢ $5 34h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 37h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $41 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.51 · official $30.24 (match) · 30 history records