Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:20:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

A9 0xa969…d109 sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$992 (+22%) realized +$982 · open +$10

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +63% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +42% what you keep after slip

Net edge+42%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate100%4W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$750per market

Trades / day4.4pace

Fees−$38est.

Kalshi-fit83%portable

Net worth$2,816now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+47.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+62.9%	+47.4%	100%	50%	+44.0%
≤30d	4	+62.9%	+47.4%	100%	50%	+44.0%
≤90d	4	+62.9%	+47.4%	100%	50%	+44.0%
all	4	+62.9%	+47.4%	100%	50%	+44.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+47.4%	50%	+44.0%
10%	+33.3%	50%	+30.3%
15%	+20.4%	50%	+17.7%
20%	+8.6%	50%	+6.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 59% · top 2 97% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +59% too few recent

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +63% · $-wt +59% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$246 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$2,816

Realized+$982

Unrealized+$10

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses4 / 0

Est. fees paid−$38

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage3d

Avg bet$750

Trades / day4.4

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime?	Yes	57¢	57¢	$1,796	$1,812	+$16 (+1%)
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria?	No	81¢	80¢	$1,010	$1,004	−$6 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Jun 27	$343	+$584	+170%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5	Jun 25	$505	+$376	+74%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5	Jun 25	$506	+$10	+2%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	Jun 25	$310	+$16	+5%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	57¢	$578	2h
Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	57¢	$954	2h
Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	57¢	$287	2h
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria?	BUY No	81¢	$1,016	10h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	SELL Under	100¢	$927	20h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	37¢	$231	27h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	35¢	$100	27h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	34¢	$13	27h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5	SELL Under	99¢	$882	2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	99¢	$516	2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	97¢	$506	2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	SELL Morocco	100¢	$326	2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	BUY Morocco	95¢	$310	2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5	BUY Under	56¢	$505	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,816.00 · official $2,816.00 (match) · 14 history records