Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:01:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa969…8a56 world 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate48%15W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$1
other 23% +$2
crypto 8% −$1
politics 5% $0
sports 4% −$1
weather 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 -0.6% -10.1% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 9 -0.6% -10.1% 33% 0% -9.6%
all 31 -3.8% -12.9% 48% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -21.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses15 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage472d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $38 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $37 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $78 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 25 $2 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $41 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 24 $37 $0 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -1%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ilie Bolojan? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 16–23? May 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 05 $12 $0 +1%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? Apr 29 $12 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? Apr 05 $3 $0 -5%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Apr 03 $14 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Apr 02 $14 $0 +3%
Will Solana dip to $110 in March? Mar 28 $14 −$1 -5%
Ye divorce before April? Mar 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 27 $5 $0 -11%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 24 $10 $0 +1%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 19 $15 $0 +3%
Will Mercedes have the highest Constructor score at the Australian GP? Mar 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $16 −$1 -7%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 12 $16 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 64°F or higher on March 10? Mar 12 $16 $0 +1%
Another commercial airline evacuation before March? Mar 06 $15 +$1 +10%
Cavaliers vs. Bulls Mar 03 $15 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $40 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $40 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $16 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $22 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $21 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $18 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $2 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $35 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $37 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $41 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $40 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $37 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $36 23d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 84¢ $41 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 85¢ $41 24d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $37 24d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $21 24d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $17 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $6 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 25d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $41 27d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $41 27d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 184d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 336d
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? SELL No 95¢ $11 348d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ilie Bolojan? BUY No $0 360d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2 376d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.90 · official $0.00 (match) · 84 history records