Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:01:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa96a…8943 sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$16 (+9%) realized +$25 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day17.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$69
other 38% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +10.7% +0.1% 33% 33% +94.7%
≤30d 9 +10.7% +0.1% 33% 33% +94.7%
≤90d 9 +10.7% +0.1% 33% 33% +94.7%
all 9 +10.7% +0.1% 33% 33% +94.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 33% +94.7%
10% -9.5% 33% +76.1%
15% -18.2% 33% +59.1%
20% -26.2% 33% +43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +45% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$10 · ×2.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$25
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day17.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Under 17¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $6 −$4 -69%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $15 +$8 +54%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$3 -33%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $16 +$76 +478%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$4 +66%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $54 −$47 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) SELL Sweden 13¢ $2 1h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 71¢ $23 1h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 40¢ $6 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 14¢ $6 1h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 45¢ $15 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 31¢ $3 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $3 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY 53¢ $10 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 9h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 95¢ $92 9h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 16¢ $16 9h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY 29¢ $9 12h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY 36¢ $9 12h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY 36¢ $5 21h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY 32¢ $5 21h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) AND Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY 17¢ $3 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 27h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 AND Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY 38¢ $6 28h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 60¢ $6 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 25 history records