Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:19:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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A9 0xa96a…1377 weather 370 markets active 2h ago coverage 109d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 109d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,309 (-18%) realized −$8,346 · open +$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate54%197W / 171L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day26.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,038now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 109d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$992
weather 22% −$2,452
other 0% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +5.4% -4.7% 100% 0% -4.7%
≤30d 45 -4.1% -13.2% 91% 0% -13.2%
≤90d 81 -3.3% -12.5% 93% 0% -12.3%
all 368 -15.6% -23.6% 54% 33% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.6% 33% -17.0%
10% ← realistic here -30.9% 33% -24.9%
15% -37.6% 32% -32.2%
20% -43.7% 21% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$54 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$1,038
Realized−$8,346
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses197 / 171
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)368 / 370
History coverage109d ⚠
Avg bet$126
Trades / day26.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 368 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 25? Yes 93¢ 96¢ $501 $520 +$20 (+4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $500 $517 +$17 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 24? Jun 24 $503 +$41 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $502 +$18 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $502 +$15 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $503 +$28 +6%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 22? Jun 22 $502 +$23 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $503 +$27 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 19? Jun 19 $503 +$36 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $502 +$28 +6%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 17? Jun 17 $501 +$14 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? Jun 17 $503 +$32 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? Jun 17 $503 −$501 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15? Jun 15 $503 +$36 +7%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 12? Jun 12 $501 +$25 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $501 +$25 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $502 +$19 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? Jun 11 $502 +$15 +3%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 11? Jun 11 $502 +$20 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $503 +$35 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $502 +$30 +6%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 10? Jun 10 $502 +$20 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 9? Jun 09 $503 +$28 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $502 +$19 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? Jun 08 $502 +$20 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $503 +$35 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $503 +$33 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 7? Jun 07 $503 +$36 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $503 +$35 +7%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 6? Jun 06 $503 +$28 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $502 +$25 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 4? Jun 04 $502 +$15 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $502 +$20 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 3? Jun 03 $502 +$22 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 2? Jun 02 $502 +$30 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? May 31 $502 −$500 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 1? May 31 $501 −$500 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30? May 30 $503 +$28 +6%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 30? May 30 $503 +$46 +9%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 29? May 29 $503 +$35 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? May 29 $503 +$43 +8%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 28? May 28 $502 +$15 +3%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 27? May 27 $502 +$15 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 27? May 27 $503 +$28 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 27? May 27 $502 +$20 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 28? May 27 $503 −$500 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 26? May 26 $501 +$25 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 25? May 25 $502 +$19 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? May 25 $502 +$18 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 24? May 24 $503 +$36 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? May 24 $503 +$32 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 23? May 23 $502 +$19 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 25? BUY Yes 93¢ $503 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 95¢ $502 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 24? BUY Yes 92¢ $503 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 96¢ $502 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 97¢ $502 2d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 22? BUY Yes 95¢ $502 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 94¢ $503 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 19? BUY Yes 93¢ $503 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 94¢ $503 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 94¢ $502 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY Yes 94¢ $503 7d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 17? BUY Yes 97¢ $501 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY Yes 94¢ $503 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15? BUY Yes 93¢ $503 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 12? BUY Yes 95¢ $501 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 95¢ $501 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? BUY Yes 97¢ $502 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 96¢ $502 13d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 11? BUY Yes 96¢ $502 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 93¢ $503 14d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 10? BUY Yes 96¢ $502 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 94¢ $502 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 9? BUY Yes 94¢ $503 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 96¢ $502 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? BUY Yes 96¢ $502 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 93¢ $503 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 7? BUY Yes 93¢ $503 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 93¢ $503 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? BUY Yes 95¢ $502 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? BUY Yes 93¢ $503 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,037.92 · official $1,036.81 (match) · 3500 history records