Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:44:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A9 0xa96b…f25e other 11 markets active 1d ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$33 (+3%) realized +$7 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$882now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +3.9% -6.0% 100% 0% -5.2%
≤30d 3 +3.9% -6.0% 100% 0% -5.2%
≤90d 3 +3.9% -6.0% 100% 0% -5.2%
all 3 +3.9% -6.0% 100% 0% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 0% -5.2%
10% -15.0% 0% -14.2%
15% -23.2% 0% -22.5%
20% -30.7% 0% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$882
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)3 / 11
History coverage4d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $305 $326 +$21 (+7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $213 $217 +$5 (+2%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 69¢ $144 $139 −$5 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $36 $39 +$3 (+8%)
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 97¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $190 +$10 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $882.18 · official $882.20 (match) · 19 history records