Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:02:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa96c…d1c7 other 148 markets active 15h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$35,988 (+3%) realized +$35,461 · open +$527
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate81%118W / 27L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$9,172per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$77,780now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$165
7 days+$167
14 days−$4,401
30 days−$2,685
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$4,960
other 34% +$33,610
politics 9% +$3,383
economics 6% +$3,194
sports 3% −$450
finance 3% +$357
tech 2% +$325
crypto 1% −$208
culture 0% −$875
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 16 -20.0% -27.6% 75% 12% -10.1%
≤90d 38 -3.9% -13.0% 87% 21% -8.7%
all 145 -0.6% -10.1% 81% 28% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 28% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 16% -16.0%
15% -26.5% 7% -24.1%
20% -33.7% 2% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$7,495) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$534 vs −$1,120 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.16 per $1 lost it wins $2.16
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$77,780
Realized+$35,461
Unrealized+$527
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses118 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)145 / 148
History coverage238d
Avg bet$9,172
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $71,299 $71,763 +$464 (+1%)
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $3,339 $3,398 +$59 (+2%)
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,616 $2,620 +$4 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 23 $63,431 +$165 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $123 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $7,495 −$5,942 -79%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $124 +$10 +8%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Jun 13 $7,868 +$1,088 +14%
Spirit Airlines shutdown/liquidation by May 31? Jun 13 $45 −$45 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Jun 12 $4,424 +$43 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $15,694 +$4,306 +27%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $2,562 +$64 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $3,352 −$3,343 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $752 −$748 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $63,088 +$146 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 06 $67,148 +$84 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $8,165 +$35 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $151,153 +$1,451 +1%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? May 19 $354 +$279 +79%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5,746 +$232 +4%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $10,685 +$1,698 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $23,928 +$66 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 09 $53,810 +$442 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 06 $23,296 +$336 +1%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 01 $76,024 +$790 +1%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? May 01 $153 +$1 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? May 01 $18,692 +$1,095 +6%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? May 01 $2,172 +$843 +39%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 30 $306 +$26 +8%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Apr 30 $588 +$59 +10%
Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30? Apr 29 $1,513 +$17 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $4,965 +$1,612 +32%
Will USD.AI launch a token by April 30? Apr 21 $1,146 +$73 +6%
Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 15 $730 +$265 +36%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 07 $71,705 +$1,884 +3%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $1,998 −$1,973 -99%
Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $5 $0 +3%
ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31? Apr 01 $9,694 +$1,393 +14%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $297 +$3 +1%
Robinhood launches prediction market through MIAXdx by March 31? Apr 01 $2,376 +$168 +7%
MARA sells any Bitcoin in 2026? Mar 26 $324 +$37 +11%
Will Backpack launch a token on March 23? Mar 23 $2,478 +$74 +3%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 21 $17,442 +$279 +2%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 21 $1,003 −$1,003 -100%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Mar 21 $1,880 −$1,880 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 19 $22,941 +$283 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Mar 18 $843 −$175 -21%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 17 $12,435 +$788 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 16 $11,470 +$74 +1%
Will Golden - KPop Demon Hunters win Best Original Song at the 98th Ac Mar 13 $145 +$24 +17%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? Mar 09 $32,468 +$85 +0%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Mar 07 $660 +$238 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $33,873 15h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $17,524 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $1,553 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $2,769 11d
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $12 11d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $94 11d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $372 11d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $1 11d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $8 11d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $50 11d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $1 11d
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 11d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $1 11d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $2 11d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $17 11d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $1 11d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $1 11d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $2,008 11d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $6 11d
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $16 11d
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 11d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $5 11d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $1 11d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $100 11d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $150 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $52 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $84 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $33,200 11d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $6,139 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 0¢ $8 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77,780.41 · official $77,780.41 (match) · 2129 history records