Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:47:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A9 0xa96c…87e5 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$216 (+32%) realized +$222 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$203
finance 2% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +18.1% +6.8% 50% 50% +18.3%
≤30d 4 +18.1% +6.8% 50% 50% +18.3%
≤90d 4 +18.1% +6.8% 50% 50% +18.3%
all 4 +18.1% +6.8% 50% 50% +18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.8% 50% +18.3%
10% -3.4% 50% +7.0%
15% -12.7% 50% -3.3%
20% -21.3% 50% -12.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$129 vs −$28 · ×4.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.65 per $1 lost it wins $4.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$222
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage2d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June? Yes 49¢ 19¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $314 −$16 -5%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $204 +$156 +76%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $102 +$102 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 58¢ $150 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 57¢ $148 1h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 23¢ $41 5h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $101 10h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $213 10h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $204 39h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $204 47h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.95 · official $3.95 (match) · 10 history records