Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:10:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A9 0xa96c…7c4d world 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+1%) realized +$13 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$309per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$333now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$11
crypto 24% −$10
other 23% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.8% -7.0% 100% 0% -7.0%
≤30d 3 +1.7% -8.0% 67% 0% -8.0%
≤90d 3 +1.7% -8.0% 67% 0% -8.0%
all 3 +1.7% -8.0% 67% 0% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 0% -8.0%
10% -16.8% 0% -16.8%
15% -24.8% 0% -24.8%
20% -32.2% 0% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$10 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.56 per $1 lost it wins $2.56
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$333
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage11d
Avg bet$309
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by July 31, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $331 $333 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $315 +$9 +3%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $290 +$16 +6%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? Jun 11 $298 −$10 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by July 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $331 1h
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026 SELL No 96¢ $324 1h
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026 BUY No 93¢ $315 2h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 South Africa? BUY No 94¢ $290 11d
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $289 11d
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $298 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $333.17 · official $333.17 (match) · 7 history records