Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:34:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A9
0xa973…f0f6
tech · 153 markets active 65d ago
0.0score
−$132,341 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$132,341 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP tech specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$0
Realized−$132,341
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses101 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)153 / 153
Avg bet$6,335
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 0 History 153 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1,696 $0 −$1,696 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $7,555 $0 −$7,555 (-100%)
Will LeBron James be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $101 $0 −$101 (-100%)
Will Apple (AAPL) close at $260-$265 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $875 $0 −$875 (-100%)
Will Sam Altman be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $365 $0 −$365 (-100%)
Will Apple (AAPL) close at $265-$270 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $87 $0 −$87 (-100%)
North Korea missile launch by November 15? No 91¢ 0¢ $886 $0 −$886 (-100%)
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $189 $0 −$189 (-100%)
Will Charlie Kirk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $140 $0 −$140 (-100%)
Will Apple (AAPL) beat quarterly earnings? No 37¢ 0¢ $1,569 $0 −$1,569 (-100%)
US forces enter Iran by April 30? No 45¢ 0¢ $450 $0 −$450 (-100%)
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro in November? No 93¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $9,779 $0 −$9,779 (-100%)
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? No 66¢ 0¢ $53,708 $0 −$53,708 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 08 $415 −$261 -63%
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? Apr 03 $2,463 +$289 +12%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 02 $450 −$450 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $3,338 +$178 +5%
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple? Mar 28 $541 +$140 +26%
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO by March 31? Mar 27 $751 +$119 +16%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Mar 16 $7 $0 -1%
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? Jan 03 $53,708 −$53,708 -100%
Will Apple release AirTag 2 this year? Jan 01 $2,543 +$945 +37%
Will Apple release HomePod mini successor by December 31? Jan 01 $29,063 +$6,851 +24%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 01 $157,819 +$9,106 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 20 $66,727 +$852 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Dec 12 $11,104 −$108 -1%
Trump out as President before 2027? Dec 12 $18,513 +$184 +1%
Will LeBron James be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 11 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 11 $48,555 −$7,555 -16%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 11 $879 −$875 -100%
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 11 $6,155 −$1,696 -28%
Will Sam Altman be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 11 $5,065 −$365 -7%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 11 $189 −$189 -100%
Will Charlie Kirk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 11 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 10 $9,782 −$9,779 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Dec 09 $20,810 −$226 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Dec 08 $2,723 +$6 +0%
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Dec 08 $2,268 −$9 -0%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 08 $16,672 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 07 $67,932 +$68 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Dec 06 $263 −$6 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 06 $6 +$2 +35%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Dec 06 $4 $0 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 06 $8 −$1 -8%
Will Apple release a new product line in 2025? Dec 06 $1,546 +$35 +2%
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? Dec 05 $374 +$17 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 05 $9 $0 +6%
Trump out as President by March 31? Dec 05 $5,146 +$175 +3%
Israel strikes Iran before 2026? Dec 05 $2,306 +$105 +5%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Dec 05 $2,850 +$67 +2%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 05 $71,128 −$58,832 -83%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 04 $5 −$1 -11%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 04 $6 $0 -4%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 04 $6 $0 -2%
Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday over 20%? Dec 04 $5 $0 +3%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 04 $4 $0 -5%
Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30? Dec 04 $4 $0 +7%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 04 $2 $0 -5%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 04 $2 $0 -21%
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Dec 04 $4,650 −$4,645 -100%
Will Sam Soverel win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Dec 04 $7 +$2 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 51% −$123,472
tech 19% −$3,980
world 16% +$444
politics 14% −$3,503
finance 0% −$1,569
sports 0% −$262
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? SELL No 31¢ $145 65d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? SELL No 31¢ $9 65d
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $310 70d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 83¢ $415 71d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No 45¢ $450 71d
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $664 71d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 97¢ $30 76d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 97¢ $140 76d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 97¢ $6 76d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 97¢ $587 76d
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple? SELL No 59¢ $678 76d
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple? SELL No 60¢ $3 76d
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $69 76d
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $10 76d
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $2 76d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 96¢ $505 77d
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $503 77d
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $1 77d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 94¢ $1,668 77d
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? SELL No 64¢ $1,591 77d
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? SELL No 65¢ $13 77d
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? SELL No 65¢ $66 77d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 94¢ $402 77d
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $347 77d
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? SELL No 67¢ $15 77d
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $20 77d
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? SELL No 67¢ $4 77d
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? SELL No 67¢ $2 77d
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? SELL No 67¢ $7 77d
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? SELL No 67¢ $1 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 7 -15.1% -23.1% 57% 43% -9.3%
all 153 -11.4% -19.9% 66% 10% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.9% 10% -22.6%
10% ← realistic here -27.5% 4% -30.0%
15% -34.5% 1% -36.7%
20% -40.9% 0% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3279 history records