Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:38:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A9
0xa974…ef79
sports · 221 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$109,400 -30%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$156,532 · open +$47,132
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$69,055
Realized−$156,532
Unrealized+$47,132
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses93 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$6,156
Open positions5
Markets (closed)325 / 221
History coverage52d
Avg bet$1,640
Trades / day62.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 5 History 325 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$154,587
7 days−$153,196
14 days−$160,477
30 days−$164,227
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 16¢ 80¢ $12,019 $59,256 +$47,237 (+393%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No 55¢ 56¢ $5,440 $5,587 +$147 (+3%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 36¢ 34¢ $2,186 $2,111 −$75 (-3%)
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Türkiye 30¢ 30¢ $1,500 $1,525 +$25 (+2%)
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $777 $575 −$202 (-26%)
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Washington Nationals 34¢ 0¢ $169 $0 −$169 (-100%)
Mariners vs. Phillies Mariners 35¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Over 46¢ 0¢ $1,376 $0 −$1,376 (-100%)
Will Solana reach $240 in September? No 55¢ 0¢ $4,255 $0 −$4,255 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5 Under 52¢ 0¢ $1,560 $0 −$1,560 (-100%)
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) New York Mets 41¢ 0¢ $1,303 $0 −$1,303 (-100%)
Mets vs. Tigers: O/U 8.5 Under 50¢ 0¢ $750 $0 −$750 (-100%)
Astros vs. Tigers Astros 40¢ 0¢ $853 $0 −$853 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115K and $116K on August 9 at 5PM ET? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins No 53¢ 0¢ $2,650 $0 −$2,650 (-100%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels No 51¢ 0¢ $1,530 $0 −$1,530 (-100%)
Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5 Under 21¢ 0¢ $840 $0 −$840 (-100%)
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Under 48¢ 0¢ $2,400 $0 −$2,400 (-100%)
Mets vs. Brewers Mets 42¢ 0¢ $2,110 $0 −$2,110 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Under 39¢ 0¢ $1,950 $0 −$1,950 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Utah: O/U 4.5 Under 23¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Avalanche vs. Wild Wild 44¢ 0¢ $1,100 $0 −$1,100 (-100%)
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds Washington Nationals 21¢ 0¢ $569 $0 −$569 (-100%)
Will Ethereum reach $4600 August 11–17? No 62¢ 0¢ $1,845 $0 −$1,845 (-100%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds No 50¢ 0¢ $6,142 $0 −$6,142 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mariners vs. Phillies Jun 13 $0 −$2,691 -4484684%
Will Solana reach $240 in September? Jun 13 $4,255 −$4,255 -100%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 13 $1,303 −$1,303 -100%
Mets vs. Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $750 −$750 -100%
Astros vs. Tigers Jun 13 $853 −$853 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115K and $116K on August 9 at 5P Jun 13 $98 −$98 -100%
Mets vs. Brewers Jun 13 $2,110 −$2,110 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4600 August 11–17? Jun 13 $1,845 −$1,845 -100%
Virginia Tech vs. South Carolina Jun 13 $320 −$320 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 13 $1,388 −$1,388 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Titans vs. Falcons Jun 13 $250 −$250 -100%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 13 $2,400 −$2,400 -100%
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 13 $1,765 −$1,765 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Los Jun 13 $2,700 −$2,700 -100%
Vikings vs. Titans Jun 13 $127 −$127 -100%
Nationals vs. Yankees: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $3,402 −$3,402 -100%
Giants vs. Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $1,996 −$1,996 -100%
Packers vs. Lions Jun 13 $1,810 −$1,810 -100%
Spread: North Carolina State Wolfpack (-1.5) Jun 13 $2,037 −$1,999 -98%
Bengals vs. Commanders Jun 13 $381 −$381 -100%
Spread: Sabres (-1.5) Jun 13 $594 −$594 -100%
Braves vs. Phillies: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $1,964 −$1,964 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $108K August 25–31? Jun 13 $893 −$893 -100%
Cubs vs. Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $2,056 −$2,045 -100%
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-5.5) Jun 13 $2,350 −$2,350 -100%
Will Georgia win the 2026 College Football National Championship? Jun 13 $182 −$182 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Mets vs. Braves Jun 13 $940 −$940 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Phillies vs. Rangers Jun 13 $230 −$230 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $2,580 −$2,580 -100%
NRFI: New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 13 $3,320 −$3,320 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 13 $3,311 −$3,311 -100%
Angels vs. Rangers: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $1,668 −$1,668 -100%
Nationals vs. Yankees Jun 13 $227 −$227 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Jun 13 $3,050 −$3,050 -100%
Falcons vs. Cowboys Jun 13 $210 −$210 -100%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 13 $3,700 −$3,700 -100%
Spread: Eagles (-4.5) Jun 13 $1,230 −$1,230 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 13 $191 −$191 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 13 $3,630 −$3,630 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix? Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 13 $5,270 −$5,270 -100%
Braves vs. Mets Jun 13 $4,238 −$4,238 -100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 13 $3,400 −$3,400 -100%
Duke Blue Devils vs. Kansas Jayhawks Jun 13 $700 −$700 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 94% +$64,180
other 3% +$3,105
politics 2% +$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 30¢ $1,500 1h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 20¢ $8,578 1h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 20¢ $33 2h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 20¢ $150 2h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 20¢ $250 2h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $178 6h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $16 6h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $35 6h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $3 6h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $6 6h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $1 6h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $6 6h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $6 6h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Ne BUY No 55¢ $92 6h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Ne BUY No 55¢ $11 6h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Ne BUY No 55¢ $107 6h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $108 6h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $126 6h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $6 6h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $32 6h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $6 6h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $3 6h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $320 6h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $37 6h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $13 6h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $32 6h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $4 7h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Ne BUY No 55¢ $37 7h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Ne BUY No 55¢ $28 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-33.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 -78.8% -80.8% 4% 4% -72.4%
≤30d 197 -46.8% -51.8% 19% 19% -53.0%
≤90d 325 -26.0% -33.0% 29% 28% -35.6%
all 325 -26.0% -33.0% 29% 28% -35.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover62.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.0% 28% -35.6%
10% -39.4% 28% -41.7%
15% ← realistic here -45.3% 27% -47.4%
20% -50.6% 27% -52.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69,054.74 · official $69,056.35 (match) · 3500 history records