Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:24:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa975…42ee sports 1075 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 52d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,681 (-20%) realized −$4,673 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%554W / 514L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day39.1pace
Fees−$232est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$261
7 days+$546
14 days+$674
30 days+$727
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$3,148
other 22% +$578
economics 0% −$52
crypto 0% +$26
world 0% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 255 -3.9% -13.1% 57% 56% +1.3%
≤30d 514 -0.7% -10.1% 56% 55% -0.2%
≤90d 1068 -5.2% -14.3% 52% 51% -19.6%
all 1068 -5.2% -14.3% 52% 51% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 51% -19.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 49% -27.3%
15% -30.0% 41% -34.3%
20% -36.8% 30% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$18 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$4,673
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses554 / 514
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$232
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1068 / 1075
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day39.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1068 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 77¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-7%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-21%)
KBO: LG Twins vs. Samsung Lions LG Twins 54¢ 52¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Under 57¢ 75¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+32%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Ghana 64¢ 64¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres San Diego Padres 31¢ 14¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-53%)
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? No 43¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $10 +$4 +34%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $329 +$103 +31%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $1 +$1 +67%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $2 +$1 +24%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 28 $4 +$2 +40%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $6 +$12 +206%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Jun 28 $4 $0 -7%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $14 +$3 +21%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $3 +$1 +30%
Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? Jun 28 $5 +$3 +55%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $115 +$89 +78%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $44 −$20 -45%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $98 +$75 +76%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 $0 +40%
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $1 $0 +29%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $19 +$4 +20%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Jun 27 $10 +$2 +20%
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $2 +$1 +36%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $2 +$1 +60%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $1 $0 +40%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $50 +$45 +90%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 27 $3 +$2 +48%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 27 $1 +$1 +70%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 27 $1 $0 +23%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $151 +$31 +20%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 27 $1 +$1 +46%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $4 +$1 +32%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $8 +$4 +53%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $7 +$5 +72%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Jun 27 $7 +$1 +17%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $9 +$2 +23%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $230 +$104 +45%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2 $0 +21%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $8 −$5 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 31¢ $4 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 55¢ $37 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 80¢ $2 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 52¢ $1 3h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $6 3h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 72¢ $9 3h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance SELL South Africa 28¢ $1 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 5h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY South Africa 71¢ $4 5h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 42¢ $41 6h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY South Africa 26¢ $1 6h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $1 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 57¢ $4 7h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 57¢ $50 7h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Ghana 64¢ $2 7h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Ghana 64¢ $1 7h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 60¢ $100 7h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 60¢ $187 7h
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 7h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 57¢ $4 8h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 74¢ $3 11h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Zizou Bergs 34¢ $1 12h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 16h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 43¢ $1 17h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 40¢ $2 18h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 19h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 80¢ $2 19h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 69¢ $3 19h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $2 20h
Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.30 · official $100.31 (match) · 3500 history records