Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:22:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa97c…719b crypto 150 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$66 (-10%) realized −$65 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate21%30W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$19
14 days−$49
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$15
sports 29% −$59
other 3% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-38.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -62.0% -65.6% 14% 14% -47.2%
≤30d 27 -62.6% -66.2% 15% 15% -66.7%
≤90d 146 -32.1% -38.6% 21% 20% -21.7%
all 146 -32.1% -38.6% 21% 20% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.6% 20% -21.7%
10% -44.5% 20% -29.2%
15% -49.8% 20% -36.0%
20% -54.8% 19% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$4 · ×3.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$65
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses30 / 116
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)146 / 150
History coverage89d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Curaçao to score first vs. Germany? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$14 +135%
South Africa to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10PM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 02 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10PM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8PM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4AM ET May 28 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9AM ET May 26 $2 +$3 +140%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 07 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET May 05 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Apr 29 $2 −$2 -96%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Apr 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7PM ET Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 28 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Apr 28 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Apr 28 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Apr 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Apr 28 $4 +$6 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Apr 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12AM ET Apr 27 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Apr 27 $5 +$6 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11PM ET Apr 27 $5 +$8 +160%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Apr 27 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Apr 27 $5 +$5 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Apr 27 $5 +$15 +294%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 30h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 31h
Curaçao to score first vs. Germany? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 33h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 36h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 38h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 99¢ $24 39h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $5 40h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 47¢ $5 40h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4d
South Africa to score first vs. Mexico? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 4d
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) BUY South Africa 1¢ $1 4d
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) BUY South Africa 2¢ $1 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.83 · official $5.83 (match) · 333 history records