Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:32:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa980…849b sports 126 markets active 2d ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$27 (-4%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%59W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$42
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$3
crypto 17% −$18
other 8% $0
tech 4% −$3
finance 3% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -15.7% -23.7% 33% 27% -17.0%
≤30d 57 -13.2% -21.5% 35% 28% -9.1%
≤90d 125 -10.9% -19.3% 47% 44% -15.0%
all 125 -10.9% -19.3% 47% 44% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 44% -15.0%
10% -27.1% 42% -23.1%
15% -34.1% 35% -30.5%
20% -40.6% 25% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses59 / 66
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage77d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 125 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $25 −$22 -89%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $24 −$10 -40%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$3 -55%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$3 -44%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$2 -33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -24%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$2 -39%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$3 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$2 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -19%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -12%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$7 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$3 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$3 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$3 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$2 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$6 +89%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $41 +$70 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +224%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 -3%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $5 +$4 +73%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$3 +50%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$4 +76%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $9 $0 -3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +18%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $4 $0 +4%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $11 −$2 -18%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $5 +$6 +114%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $54 +$1 +2%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $10 $0 -4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $4 +$6 +134%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $5 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 8¢ $3 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $5 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1 2d
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider SELL Diana Shnaider 41¢ $14 2d
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 66¢ $1 2d
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 67¢ $1 2d
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 67¢ $1 2d
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 67¢ $5 2d
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 67¢ $1 2d
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 66¢ $1 2d
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 67¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 427 history records