Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:35:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa986…abfa other 30 markets active 13h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$212 (-26%) realized −$212 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%15W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$40
14 days−$40
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$192
other 27% −$23
crypto 9% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -15.2% -23.3% 50% 46% -23.4%
≤30d 24 -15.2% -23.3% 50% 46% -23.4%
≤90d 25 -18.6% -26.4% 48% 44% -58.5%
all 28 -14.8% -22.9% 54% 46% -34.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 46% -34.1%
10% -30.3% 32% -40.4%
15% -37.0% 29% -46.1%
20% -43.2% 18% -51.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$25 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$212
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses15 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage144d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$8 +21%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -48%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$4 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$9 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +81%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
First Round Pool B: USA vs. Italy Mar 29 $222 −$222 -100%
First Round Pool C: Australia vs. South Korea Mar 09 $100 +$33 +33%
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. Australia Mar 08 $180 +$9 +5%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101? Jan 25 $30 +$4 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 13h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 34h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 35h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 35h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 36h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 36h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.39 · official $10.39 (match) · 59 history records