Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:11:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa98a…af35 crypto 276 markets active 6d ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,381 (-5%) realized −$3,381 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate56%154W / 122L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$243per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$722
14 days−$722
30 days−$722
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$4,116
sports 2% +$20
other 2% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -17.5% -25.3% 60% 40% -41.3%
≤30d 10 -17.5% -25.3% 60% 40% -41.3%
≤90d 165 -22.4% -29.8% 51% 35% -16.9%
all 276 -16.7% -24.7% 56% 38% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 38% -15.0%
10% -31.9% 25% -23.2%
15% -38.5% 19% -30.6%
20% -44.5% 14% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$116 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,381
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses154 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)276 / 276
History coverage97d
Avg bet$243
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 276 Trades
no open positions (47 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $724 −$596 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $600 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 10 $36 −$22 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $206 −$206 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $78 +$31 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $205 +$35 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $52 −$24 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $101 +$10 +10%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $53 +$37 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 04 $177 −$171 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 04 $408 −$400 -98%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 02 $152 −$11 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 02 $259 +$167 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 02 $401 +$20 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 02 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 02 $103 +$72 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 02 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 02 $68 −$20 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 02 $248 +$45 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 02 $140 +$156 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 02 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 18 $6 −$6 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 18 $5 −$4 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Apr 18 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 18 $45 −$44 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 18 $400 −$391 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 18 $107 −$101 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 18 $527 −$520 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 18 $401 +$127 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 18 $218 −$94 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Apr 18 $113 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Apr 18 $11 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 18 $118 −$111 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 18 $217 +$17 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 17 $69 −$67 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Apr 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 15 $6 +$7 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 15 $3 +$3 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 11 $356 −$345 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 11 $350 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 11 $66 −$63 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 11 $607 −$178 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 11 $232 +$164 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 11 $150 +$132 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 11 $59 −$57 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 11 $200 +$159 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 11 $79 −$76 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 11 $450 +$79 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $505 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $127 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $600 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $84 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $124 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $102 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $117 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $111 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 88¢ $90 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $33 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 51¢ $53 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1167 history records